Saturday, September 14, 2024

Weekly Indicators for September 9 - 13 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . The imminent likelihood of a Fed rate cut has continued to d...
Friday, September 13, 2024

UPDATE: Real median household income for < sigh > 2023

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    - by New Deal democrat I’m a little late to this, since FRED took its time updating, but the annual report of median household income fo...
Thursday, September 12, 2024

Initial claims still positive, moving into very challenging YoY comparisons (plus a note about the PPI)

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   - by New Deal democrat If residual post-pandemic seasonality has been affecting jobless claims statistics, the real acid test is going to...
Wednesday, September 11, 2024

August CPI: further important progress towards 2% YoY level, marred (only) by a surprise uptick in shelter

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   - by New Deal democrat August  CPI, with the conspicuous exception of shelter, continued to come in tame. And the list of other “proble...
Monday, September 9, 2024

Leading indicators from Friday’s jobs report: not too bad, not bad at all

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   - by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic news today or tomorrow, so let’s take a more detailed look at the leading indicators from...
Saturday, September 7, 2024

Weekly Indicators for September 2 - 6 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . In the wake of yesterday’s weak jobs report, bond yields and ...
Friday, September 6, 2024

August jobs report: for the first time, including revisions, more consistent with a hard landing

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   - by New Deal democrat My focus continues to be  on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deteri...
Thursday, September 5, 2024

Economically weighted ISM indexes show an economy on the very cusp of - but not in - contraction

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   - by New Deal democrat Recently I have paid much more attention to the ISM services index. That’s because, since the turn of the  Millenn...

Jobless claims: all good news

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   - by New Deal democrat The weekly news from jobless claims continues to be good. The hypotheses that the summer increase was unresolved ...
Wednesday, September 4, 2024

July JOLTS report: relentless deterioration?

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   - by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in...
Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Manufacturing and construction together suggest weak but still expanding leading sectors

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual we start the month with two important reports on the leading sectors of  manufacturing and construction....
Monday, September 2, 2024

For Labor Day: 4 measures of worker wage growth

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    - by New Deal democrat On this Labor Day, it is fitting to update the economic state of ordinary workers. There is a variety of economic...
Saturday, August 31, 2024

Weekly Indicators for August 26 - 30 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . There were two noteworthy events this past week. First, the ...
Friday, August 30, 2024

July personal income and spending: an excellent report, with only one fly in the ointment

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   - by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is now the most important report of all, except for jobs. That’s...