Saturday, September 7, 2024

Weekly Indicators for September 2 - 6 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . In the wake of yesterday’s weak jobs report, bond yields and ...
Friday, September 6, 2024

August jobs report: for the first time, including revisions, more consistent with a hard landing

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   - by New Deal democrat My focus continues to be  on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deteri...
Thursday, September 5, 2024

Economically weighted ISM indexes show an economy on the very cusp of - but not in - contraction

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   - by New Deal democrat Recently I have paid much more attention to the ISM services index. That’s because, since the turn of the  Millenn...

Jobless claims: all good news

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   - by New Deal democrat The weekly news from jobless claims continues to be good. The hypotheses that the summer increase was unresolved ...
Wednesday, September 4, 2024

July JOLTS report: relentless deterioration?

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   - by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in...
Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Manufacturing and construction together suggest weak but still expanding leading sectors

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual we start the month with two important reports on the leading sectors of  manufacturing and construction....
Monday, September 2, 2024

For Labor Day: 4 measures of worker wage growth

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    - by New Deal democrat On this Labor Day, it is fitting to update the economic state of ordinary workers. There is a variety of economic...
Saturday, August 31, 2024

Weekly Indicators for August 26 - 30 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . There were two noteworthy events this past week. First, the ...
Friday, August 30, 2024

July personal income and spending: an excellent report, with only one fly in the ointment

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   - by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is now the most important report of all, except for jobs. That’s...
Thursday, August 29, 2024

Jobless claims: almost all good

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   - by New Deal democrat The news about initial and continuing jobless claims was almost all good this week. Initial claims declined -2,000...
Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Domestic factory orders and production vs. real imports as economic forecasting tools

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   - by New Deal democrat Over the past year, I have downgraded the importance of manufacturing indicators as a forecasting tool for the eco...
Tuesday, August 27, 2024

Repeat home sale indexes show continued decelation in house price inflation, more comfort room for Fed to cut rates

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning we got the repeat home sales price data from the FHFA and Case Shiller. And the news was good, espec...
Monday, August 26, 2024

The state of the consumer, August 2024

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   - by New Deal democrat One of my alternate systems for forecasting recessions is what I call the “Consumer Nowcast.” This is a fundament...
Saturday, August 24, 2024

Weekly Indicators for August 19 - 23 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . This week, for the first time in several years, the number o...
Friday, August 23, 2024

New and existing home sales for July: the rebalancing is underway

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   - by New Deal democrat I figured this month I would report on new and existing home sales at the same time, since they have been reported...