Saturday, August 31, 2024

Weekly Indicators for August 26 - 30 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . There were two noteworthy events this past week. First, the ...
Friday, August 30, 2024

July personal income and spending: an excellent report, with only one fly in the ointment

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   - by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is now the most important report of all, except for jobs. That’s...
Thursday, August 29, 2024

Jobless claims: almost all good

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   - by New Deal democrat The news about initial and continuing jobless claims was almost all good this week. Initial claims declined -2,000...
Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Domestic factory orders and production vs. real imports as economic forecasting tools

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   - by New Deal democrat Over the past year, I have downgraded the importance of manufacturing indicators as a forecasting tool for the eco...
Tuesday, August 27, 2024

Repeat home sale indexes show continued decelation in house price inflation, more comfort room for Fed to cut rates

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning we got the repeat home sales price data from the FHFA and Case Shiller. And the news was good, espec...
Monday, August 26, 2024

The state of the consumer, August 2024

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   - by New Deal democrat One of my alternate systems for forecasting recessions is what I call the “Consumer Nowcast.” This is a fundament...
Saturday, August 24, 2024

Weekly Indicators for August 19 - 23 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . This week, for the first time in several years, the number o...
Friday, August 23, 2024

New and existing home sales for July: the rebalancing is underway

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   - by New Deal democrat I figured this month I would report on new and existing home sales at the same time, since they have been reported...
Thursday, August 22, 2024

As the Debby effect dissipates, initial claims remain positive for the economy

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   - byNew Deal democrat For the last several months, jobless claims have been buffeted first by unresolved post-pandemic seasonality, and t...
Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Preliminary benchmark revisions wipe out 30% of jobs growth in the past 16 months

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   - by New Deal democrat Every month I write about the Jobs Report. But while it is timely, it is only an estimate. There is an actual cens...
Tuesday, August 20, 2024

How restrictive are “real” interest rates?

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   - by New Deal democrat This post is inspired by a Xtweet from Paul Krugman this morning, in which he pointed out that if we measured infl...
Monday, August 19, 2024

Real hourly wages, median income, and aggregate payrolls: update for July

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   - by New Deal democrat It’s a slow economic news week, so don’t be surprised if I play hookie tomorrow or Wednesday. In the meantime, now...
Saturday, August 17, 2024

Weekly Indicators for August 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. With the bond market anticipating Fed rate cuts ahead, it has ...
Friday, August 16, 2024

But for Beryl, housing construction would have warranted hoisting a yellow caution flag for recession

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   - by New Deal democrat The effects of Hurricane Beryl had just enough of an effect on home building in July to cause me not to hoist a ye...
Thursday, August 15, 2024

Industrial production: negative number, important negative revisions

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   - by New Deal democrat In the past, industrial production has been the King of Coincident Indicators, since its peaks and troughs tended ...