Saturday, August 17, 2024

Weekly Indicators for August 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. With the bond market anticipating Fed rate cuts ahead, it has ...
Friday, August 16, 2024

But for Beryl, housing construction would have warranted hoisting a yellow caution flag for recession

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   - by New Deal democrat The effects of Hurricane Beryl had just enough of an effect on home building in July to cause me not to hoist a ye...
Thursday, August 15, 2024

Industrial production: negative number, important negative revisions

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   - by New Deal democrat In the past, industrial production has been the King of Coincident Indicators, since its peaks and troughs tended ...

Real retail sales the highest so far this year, but still negative YoY

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   - by New Deal democrat  The second point of economic data released this morning, retail sales, were also positive. On a nominal basis, r...

Jobless claims still a positive, even with some lingering Beryl after-effects in Texas

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   - by New Deal democrat Last week I pointed out that the YoY increases in initial and continuing claims appeared to be all about Texas in ...
Wednesday, August 14, 2024

For July, “ The index for shelter … accounti[ed] for nearly 90 percent of the [otherwise sleepy] monthly increase”

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 - by New Deal democrat  The CPI for July continued all of the trends I have been writing about for the past year or more:  - Headline and ...
Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Motor vehicle sales and recession: current status

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   - by New Deal democrat In the paradigm popularized by Prof. Edward Leamer 20 years ago, motor vehicle sales are the 2nd domino to fall, a...

Producer prices remain tame

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   - by New Deal democrat Producer prices for final demand (blue) rose 0.1% in July, while upstream raw commodity prices (red) rose 0.7%, cl...
Sunday, August 11, 2024

Weekly Indicators for August 5 - 9 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up, a day later than usual, at Seeking Alpha . While there was some excitement at t...
Friday, August 9, 2024

Residential building construction and spending sound a warning for goods-producing employment

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    - by New Deal democrat The final data point from last week that I wanted to catch up on was construction spending, and especially reside...
Thursday, August 8, 2024

Initial jobless claims, ex Hurricane Beryl distortions, remain very positive

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   - by New Deal democrat Officially reported initial jobless claims declined -17,000 to 233,000 last week. The four week moving average ros...
Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Why the leading elements of the Establishment Survey in the jobs report still forecast expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat Continuing my catching up this week, let’s take a look in some further detail about why I didn’t think Friday’s jo...
Tuesday, August 6, 2024

Credit conditions in Q2 improved, and are typical of an economy having come *out* of a recession, not going in to one

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   - by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey, the premier quarterly measure of the loose- or tight-ness of bank lending, was pub...