Saturday, July 6, 2024

Weekly Indicators for July 1 - 5 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. A recurring theme for the last month or two has been how the h...
Friday, July 5, 2024

One more time: bifurcation in the jobs report, as Establishment Survey shows continued jobs growth, while Household Survey comes close to triggering the “Sahm Rule”

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   - by New Deal democrat In the past few months, my focus has been  on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., ...
Wednesday, July 3, 2024

ISM weighted manufacturing + non-manufacturing indexes warrant hoisting a yellow caution flag for the economy

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    - by New Deal democrat I’ll spare you the introductory graphs this month, but let me reiterate my opening comments from last month: I ne...

Jobless claims appear to show both signal and post-pandemic seasonality noise

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   - by New Deal democrat Since tomorrow is the Big Holiday, initial and continuing claims were reported today. [Also, on a programming not...
Tuesday, July 2, 2024

JOLTS report shows stabilization in almost all metrics for May

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   - by New Deal democrat The JOLTS report for May showed most metrics continued to show a slight rebounding from their March lows. The over...
Monday, July 1, 2024

June manufacturing rebounds, May construction spending declines to (only) slightly negative

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, the month starts out with important data on manufacturing and construction. There was bad news and good ...
Sunday, June 30, 2024

Weekly Indicators for June 24 - 28 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat I didn’t do this yesterday, so let’s take care of it today …. My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha ....
Friday, June 28, 2024

Real income and spending in May a nice rebound, but watch the caution flags in manufacturing sales and goods spending

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   - by New Deal democrat  Personal income and spending, in addition to the jobs report, has become one of the most important monthly repor...
Thursday, June 27, 2024

House prices - especially for existing homes - compared with wages remain near or at all-time highs, so existing homes make up less of the market

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   - by New Deal democrat  One item I meant to address with this week’s existing and new home sales data was the relative difference in pri...

Initial claims remain positive, while continuing claims break out negatively from 12 month range

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -6,000 last week to 233,000. The four week moving average increased, however, by 3,000 to...
Wednesday, June 26, 2024

New home sales and prices continue range-bound in May, while new homes *for sale* make a 15 year high (and that’s good!)

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   - by New Deal democrat We finished housing data for the month with this morning’s report on new single family home sales and prices. As I...
Tuesday, June 25, 2024

FHFA and Case Shiller repeat sales indexes show YoY price growth has peaked; slow deceleration in shelter CPI should continue

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   - by New Deal democrat This week’s data focuses on house prices and new home sales, and the more important personal income and spending r...