Saturday, June 22, 2024

Weekly Indicators for June 17 - 21 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . The high frequency data has not been confirming the relative...
Friday, June 21, 2024

Snail’s pace of housing market rebalancing, as existing sales remain range bound, and inventory has not increased enough to relieve pricing pressure

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   - by New Deal democrat Existing home sales have very limited value in economic forecasting, since they are the trade of an existing produ...
Thursday, June 20, 2024

Housing permits and starts the lowest since 2020, units under construciton also decline further, but no yellow caution flag yet

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   - by New Deal democrat I’ve written repeatedly in the past few months that I am paying especial attention to the manufacturing and constr...

Jobless claims still positive for forecasting purposes; the unresolved seasonality issue should be resolved shortly

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s jobless claims report continued the uptrend we’ve seen for the past month. But it still looks more ...
Wednesday, June 19, 2024

The economy during Biden’s tenure has not been kind to young persons looking to buy or rent property

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   - by New Deal democrat I saw a graph within the past few days (which unfortunately I did not make a copy of) indicating that Biden’s poll...
Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Good news on production is overshadowed by the yellow caution flag of flagging real retail sales

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   - by New Deal democrat There was good news and not so good news in this morning’s two important data releases.  I’ll start with the good ...
Monday, June 17, 2024

Immigration and the housing market freeze are making the “last mile” of disinflation harder, not the Phillips Curve

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    - by New Deal democrat  Jason Furman is out today with an article in the WSJ that the Fed should not be in any rush to lower rates, arg...
Saturday, June 15, 2024

Weekly Indicators for June 10 - 14 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Ever so slowly, the “long leading” data has been improving. C...
Friday, June 14, 2024

Post-pandemic Latin American immigration and the unemployment rate (and it’s implications for the economy)

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   - by New Deal democrat One week ago, in analyzing the jobs report, I noted the continuing severe disconnect between the Establishment Sur...
Thursday, June 13, 2024

Initial jobless claims now in a clear uptrend - but is it unresolved post-pandemic seasonality?

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    - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose significantly last week, up 13,000 to 242,000, the highest level since last August. T...
Wednesday, June 12, 2024

May CPI continued to be all about shelter

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   - by New Deal democrat Consumer prices in May showed no inflation at all, as a decline in gas prices helped the headline number come in u...
Tuesday, June 11, 2024

What would adjusting the Household jobs Survey for immigration driven population growth do?

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   - by New Deal democrat This is a continuation of my post from yesterday discussing the large divergences between the Household and Establ...