Friday, March 1, 2024

Manufacturing and construction show softness to start the month

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, the new month’s data starts out with information on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturin...
Thursday, February 29, 2024

January personal income and spending: Goldilocks is knocking at the door

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   - by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending has become one of the two most important monthly reports I follow, because it nets ou...

Initial claims still very positive, especially YoY

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   - by New Deal democrat Before I get to this morning’s personal income and spending report, let’s get the latest weekly update to jobless ...
Wednesday, February 28, 2024

The state of freight

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   - by New Deal democrat  There’s no significant economic news today. Yesterday we did get durable goods orders, which are an official lea...
Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Repeat sales house price indexes continue to increases on par with past expansions

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   - by New Deal democrat House prices lag home sales, which in turn lag mortgage rates. Yesterday we got the final January reading on sales...
Monday, February 26, 2024

New home sales and YoY prices change little; expect sideways trend to follow similar recent trend in mortgage rates

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   - by New Deal democrat This week we conclude January’s housing market data with repeat sales prices tomorrow, and new single family home ...
Saturday, February 24, 2024

Weekly Indicators for February 19 - 23 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . For an economy that seems to be crushing along, there sure a...
Friday, February 23, 2024

The “gold standard” of employment reports suggests that last summer’s job growth was even weaker than we thought

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   - by New Deal democrat While the monthly jobs report gets all the headlines, the “gold standard” for actual employment gains and losses i...
Thursday, February 22, 2024

The bottoming process in existing home sales continues, as YoY price comparisons increase

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   - by New Deal democrat The bifurcation of the housing market between new and existing home components continues, as existing home sales c...

The good news on jobless claims continues

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   - by New Deal democrat The good news on jobless claims continued this week, as initial claims declined -12,000 to 201,000. The four week...
Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Perceptions of inflation vs. wage growth: why the divergence?

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    - by New Deal democrat My recent travels included visits to cousins and their children on both sides of my family. Without any promptin...
Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Weekly Indicators for February 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat I am back from my travels, so it’s time to catch up. There’s no significant economic news until tomorrow, but in t...
Friday, February 16, 2024

Housing construction essentially stable in January

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   - by New Deal democrat  I’m on the road, so I need to keep this brief, but fortunately I can give you the essence of this most importan...

Retail sales faceplant; industrial production continues 16 month streak of weakness

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  - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at two the big short leading and coincident indicators that were reported yesterday, respectivel...
Thursday, February 15, 2024

Initial claims remain positive

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined this week -8,000 to 212,000. The four week average rose 5,750 to 218,250. With the...
Wednesday, February 14, 2024

The long leading forecast for 2024 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat A couple of times a year I update my long leading forecast. With the latest GDP and Senior Loan Officer Survey da...
Tuesday, February 13, 2024

January 2024 consumer inflation: still a tug of war between gas and housing

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   - by New Deal democrat As it has been for going on two years, consumer inflation has boiled down to a contest of strength between energy ...