Friday, February 16, 2024

Housing construction essentially stable in January

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   - by New Deal democrat  I’m on the road, so I need to keep this brief, but fortunately I can give you the essence of this most importan...

Retail sales faceplant; industrial production continues 16 month streak of weakness

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  - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at two the big short leading and coincident indicators that were reported yesterday, respectivel...
Thursday, February 15, 2024

Initial claims remain positive

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined this week -8,000 to 212,000. The four week average rose 5,750 to 218,250. With the...
Wednesday, February 14, 2024

The long leading forecast for 2024 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat A couple of times a year I update my long leading forecast. With the latest GDP and Senior Loan Officer Survey da...
Tuesday, February 13, 2024

January 2024 consumer inflation: still a tug of war between gas and housing

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   - by New Deal democrat As it has been for going on two years, consumer inflation has boiled down to a contest of strength between energy ...
Monday, February 12, 2024

Aggregate payrolls vs. total withholding taxes paid: which one has been telling the truer tale?

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   - by New Deal democrat The drought in new data continues for today. So I wanted to take a further look at the two measures of total payro...
Saturday, February 10, 2024

Weekly Indicators for February 5 - 9 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Most notable is that two of the long leading indicators - inter...
Friday, February 9, 2024

And now for something completely different: portents of DOOOM

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    - by New Deal democrat The lion’s share of the employment news recently has been very good. But not all of it. In particular, several of...
Thursday, February 8, 2024

Initial jobless claims confirmatory of continued expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims continue at their very low level, declining -9,000 to 218,000 last week.  The four week moving aver...
Wednesday, February 7, 2024

Scenes from the January jobs report: revisions changed the picture in the Establishment Survey

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   - by New Deal democrat Last Friday’s jobs report contained a number of annual revisions which change what the trend line for the last yea...
Tuesday, February 6, 2024

The Senior Loan Officer Survey makes an important turn

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    - by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer jSurvey is a long leading indicator, telling us about credit conditions that typically t...
Monday, February 5, 2024

Travelin’ Man

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   - by New Deal democrat I’m on the road today, so no post. Fortunately, the data is light, so no big deal. I’ll be back tomorrow, discussi...
Saturday, February 3, 2024

Weekly Indicators for January 29 - February 2 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . One week ago many of the high frequency indicators hit an “a...
Friday, February 2, 2024

January jobs report: a very strong report, but with pockets of significant weakness

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   - by New Deal democrat As per usual, the Establishment and Household portions of the jobs report gave somewhat different impressions, com...
Thursday, February 1, 2024

New month’s data starts out with leading indicators in both manufacturing and construction indicating expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat  As usual, the new month’s data starts out with information on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufactur...

Continuing claims near 2+ year high; likely the effect of Silicon Valley layoffs

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims rose by 9,000 to a three month high of 224,000 last week. The four week moving average also rose 5,...

A comment on median vs. mean, and job-stratified wage growth

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   - by New Deal democrat Before today’s avalanche of data, I wanted to comment briefly on the Employment Cost Index for Q4 that was report...
Wednesday, January 31, 2024

December JOLTS report: while hiring has weakened, firing (and quitting) continue to show a strong labor market

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    - by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for December showed a labor market that, while decelerating, remains relatively strong. ...