Saturday, February 3, 2024

Weekly Indicators for January 29 - February 2 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . One week ago many of the high frequency indicators hit an “a...
Friday, February 2, 2024

January jobs report: a very strong report, but with pockets of significant weakness

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   - by New Deal democrat As per usual, the Establishment and Household portions of the jobs report gave somewhat different impressions, com...
Thursday, February 1, 2024

New month’s data starts out with leading indicators in both manufacturing and construction indicating expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat  As usual, the new month’s data starts out with information on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufactur...

Continuing claims near 2+ year high; likely the effect of Silicon Valley layoffs

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims rose by 9,000 to a three month high of 224,000 last week. The four week moving average also rose 5,...

A comment on median vs. mean, and job-stratified wage growth

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   - by New Deal democrat Before today’s avalanche of data, I wanted to comment briefly on the Employment Cost Index for Q4 that was report...
Wednesday, January 31, 2024

December JOLTS report: while hiring has weakened, firing (and quitting) continue to show a strong labor market

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    - by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for December showed a labor market that, while decelerating, remains relatively strong. ...
Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Repeat home sale prices continue rebound; rents continue decline

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   - by New Deal democrat  Since the Fed started raising interest rates almost two years ago, homebuilding has shifted away from single fa...
Monday, January 29, 2024

Both production and transportation are down from 2022 peaks; why wasn’t that enough to cause a recession?

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    - by New Deal democrat While I have written about how the Index of Leading Indicators failed last year, as the loosening of and disinfla...
Saturday, January 27, 2024

Weekly Indicators for January 22 - 26 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Every now and then the data has a particularly noisy week, and ...
Friday, January 26, 2024

December 2023 personal income and spending: Goldilocks is in the house UPDATED

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   - by New Deal democrat [Note: The St. Louis FRED site is down for maintenance, which means unfortunately there are no graphs available to...

Core capital goods orders, three month average of manufacturers’ new orders both make new all-time highs

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   - by New Deal democrat Before I update this morning’s personal income and spending data, I wanted to briefly note some significant news ...
Thursday, January 25, 2024

New home sales: if you lower prices, they (buyers) will come

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   - by New Deal democrat New home sales are the most leading of all the housing metrics, but suffer from being heavily revised as well as e...

Initial claims suggest the unemployment rate will drift back close to 50 year lows

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims increased 25,000 last week from their near all-time lows to 214,000. The four week moving average d...
Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Attacks on Red Sea shipping, and its tie to US energy consumption

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    - by New Deal democrat The drought in economic data continues today. So let me continue on the issue of energy, tying into yesterday’s n...
Tuesday, January 23, 2024

A discussion: EV sales have been stalling, while hybrids are flying off dealer lots

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   - by New Deal democrat In addition to housing, the other big area where supply shock inflation has not completely resolved is vehicles. B...