Saturday, December 16, 2023

Weekly Indicators for December 11 - 15 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The big decline in long term interest rates this week in the w...
Friday, December 15, 2023

Industrial production remains below late 2022 peak even after end of UAW strike

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    - by New Deal democrat Industrial production historically has been the King of Coincident Indicators, turning up and down at the onset a...
Thursday, December 14, 2023

Real retail sales mildly positive, but still suggest further deceleration in job gains

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   - by New Deal democrat Before proceeding further, I should mention - and should have mentioned as to jobless claims - that we are in tha...

Jobless claims: good news all around

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   - by New Deal democrat This was one of the best weeks as to jobless claims all year. Initial claims declined -17,000 to 202,000, a tie fo...
Wednesday, December 13, 2023

Producer prices, “sticky” consumer prices - basically, everything except shelter show nearly complete abatement of inflation

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   - by New Deal democrat The producer price index released this morning for November is yet further confirmation that inflation ex-shelter ...
Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Real aggregate payrolls rise to new high as CPI ex-shelter continues somnolent

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    - by New Deal democrat With few exceptions, the November CPI report once again demonstrated how important fictitious shelter is to its c...
Monday, December 11, 2023

Scenes from the leading sectors of the November jobs report: why I sounded a note of caution

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   - by New Deal democrat I seem to have been something of a negative outlier with respect to last Friday’s jobs report. Not because I was d...
Saturday, December 9, 2023

Weekly Indicators for December 4 - 8 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The coincident data keeps getting better and better, while inte...
Friday, December 8, 2023

November jobs report: signs of considerable strength, but warning signs of considerable weakness as well

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   - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that “In tomorrow’s jobs report, my focus will be on whether the data is most consistent with a ...
Thursday, December 7, 2023

Initial claims continue to forecast expansion; further slight deceleration in employment, unemployment, and wages most likely tomorrow

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning we had our last look at initial jobless claims before tomorrow’s November jobs report. On a weekly ba...
Wednesday, December 6, 2023

Real consumer spending forecasts continuing jobs deceleration

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   - by New Deal democrat  As I’ve written many times over the years, one of the best short leading indicators for the jobs market is real ...
Tuesday, December 5, 2023

October JOLTS report: yet one more month in the ongoing decelerating trend

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 - by New Deal democrat   All of the major metrics in this month’s JOLTS report for October continued to show deceleration. Here are opening...