Saturday, December 9, 2023

Weekly Indicators for December 4 - 8 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The coincident data keeps getting better and better, while inte...
Friday, December 8, 2023

November jobs report: signs of considerable strength, but warning signs of considerable weakness as well

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   - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that “In tomorrow’s jobs report, my focus will be on whether the data is most consistent with a ...
Thursday, December 7, 2023

Initial claims continue to forecast expansion; further slight deceleration in employment, unemployment, and wages most likely tomorrow

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning we had our last look at initial jobless claims before tomorrow’s November jobs report. On a weekly ba...
Wednesday, December 6, 2023

Real consumer spending forecasts continuing jobs deceleration

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   - by New Deal democrat  As I’ve written many times over the years, one of the best short leading indicators for the jobs market is real ...
Tuesday, December 5, 2023

October JOLTS report: yet one more month in the ongoing decelerating trend

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 - by New Deal democrat   All of the major metrics in this month’s JOLTS report for October continued to show deceleration. Here are opening...
Monday, December 4, 2023

A big increase holds up construction spending in October; and construction spending is holding up the economy

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   - by New Deal democrat Construction spending for October was reported last Friday, and every sector but nonresidential ex-manufacturing s...
Sunday, December 3, 2023

Weekly Indicators for November 27 - December 1 at Seeking Alpha; plus a comment on the ISM manufacturing report

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The coincident data continues quite strong, and the long leadin...
Friday, December 1, 2023

Ex-housing, PCE inflation, like CPI inflation, is under th Fed’s 2% target

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    - by New Deal democrat Note: I may not be around for the ISM manufacturing or construction spending reports this morning. If so, I’ll co...
Thursday, November 30, 2023

Despite a few soft spots, consumer income and spending continued to power ahead in October

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   - by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is along with the jobs report, one of the two most important coinc...

Despite the continued elevation of continued claims, initial claims signal continued expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat I’ll comment on personal income and spending later this morning, but let’s start out with our weekly update on job...
Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Forecasting a further upturn in the unemployment rate: what works?

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    - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I read a post over at Seeking Alpha in which the author confidently predicted a recession in Q1 next ye...
Tuesday, November 28, 2023

Driven by frozen inventory, repeat home prices continue to increase, but downward pressure on shelter inflation remains

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    - by New Deal democrat Our last piece of important housing information for the month was released this morning; namely repeat home sale ...
Monday, November 27, 2023

Two year low in new home prices and turndown in sales show renewed pressure caused by increased mortgage rates

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   - by New Deal democrat Once again, this morning’s report on new single family home sales shows that  the compete bifurcation of the new v...