Saturday, November 18, 2023

Weekly Indicators for November 13 - 17 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. After a brief pause, the coincident indicators have continued to...
Friday, November 17, 2023

Housing construction continues to support subdued expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote of how manufacturing has faded somewhat as a leading indicator, at least in the sense that it ta...
Thursday, November 16, 2023

October industrial and manufacturing production tank - but it’s all about the UAW strike

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   - by New Deal democrat Industrial production historically has been the King of Coincident Indicators, turning up and down coincident with...

Initial claims rise, but remain below the caution threshold

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  - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 231,000 in the past week. The 4 week moving average increased 7,750 to 220,25...
Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Real retail sales consistent with continued slow growth, aided by a continuing decline in commodity prices

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   - by New Deal democrat Before I discuss today’s main course of real retail sales, let’s briefly ingest the ours  d’oauvres of PPI and a b...
Tuesday, November 14, 2023

Except for fictitious shelter and motor vehicle insurance and repairs, consumer inflation is thoroughly contained

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   - by New Deal democrat The October CPI report confirmed yet again what I have been saying for months: except for fictitious shelter, both...
Monday, November 13, 2023

Why Biden is in trouble about the economy

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  - by New Deal democrat     A big focus of political discourse in the past two weeks has been about why Biden seems to be pollling so po...
Saturday, November 11, 2023

Weekly Indicators for November 6 - 10 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . How long can the short term outlook stay positive in the face ...
Friday, November 10, 2023

Consumption leads (longer term) unemployment, too

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    - by New Deal democrat Once again there is no new economic data, so let me follow up some more on the issue of longer term unemployment....
Thursday, November 9, 2023

Initial claims continue tame YoY; why continuing claims indicate that elevated longer-term unemployment is not signaling recession

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -3,000 to 217,000 last week. The 4 week average increased 2,000 to 212,750. With a...
Tuesday, November 7, 2023

Rays of sunshine in the supply and demand for credit?

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   - by New Deal democrat Access to and the supply of credit is a long leading indicator. The results of tightening or loosening don’t usual...
Monday, November 6, 2023

Scenes from the October jobs report: soft landing vs. continued slow deceleration

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   - by New Deal democrat  First, an editorial note: economic news is light this week, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky for a day or t...