Saturday, October 21, 2023

Weekly Indicators for October 16 - 20 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Obviously the big story of the week was the surge in interest ...
Friday, October 20, 2023

Why the index of leading indicators failed: examining the once in a lifetime post-pandemic tailwind

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   - by New Deal democrat Carl Quintanilla observed the one year anniversary of the following two days ago: I’ve written previously about w...
Thursday, October 19, 2023

The collapse of the existing home market continues in September

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    - by New Deal democrat September was yet another month in the ongoing collapse of existing home sales. To wit, sales declined another -8...

Initial claims on the cusp of turning lower YoY

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims dropped below 200,000 last week for the first time since January, and not too far from the...
Wednesday, October 18, 2023

The last holdout in housing data has turned; ‘recession watch’ for next 12 months remains

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   - by New Deal democrat Last month I wrote that: “ the biggest news was what happened with units under construction. The total declined sl...
Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Like retail sales, motor vehicles lead the way in industrial production

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   - by New Deal democrat As with retail sales earlier this morning, motor vehicle production is playing an outsized role in expansion this ...

A big jump in motor vehicle sales highlights a good September for retail sales

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   - by New Deal democrat   As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite metrics because it tells us so much about the consumer and, indire...
Monday, October 16, 2023

The “bearish steepening” and the death of refinancing

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   - by New Deal democrat  If you’ve paid much attention to the financial press in recent days, you have probably read stories that the yi...
Saturday, October 14, 2023

Weekly Indicators for October 9 - 13 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The recent improvement in the short leading indicators has made...
Friday, October 13, 2023

Real average wages and decline, while real aggregate payroll gains remain below peak

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   - by New Deal democrat With the report on September inflation yesterday, we can update two measures of how well average American workers ...
Thursday, October 12, 2023

Except for fictitious shelter and vehicle repairs, September inflation was moderate

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   - by New Deal democrat With the main exception of fictitious shelter, consumer inflation in September remained relatively subdued, but as...

The good news continues on initial claims

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    - by New Deal democrat I’ll parse the CPI report later this morning, but first, let’s update initial jobless claims. Initial claims were...
Wednesday, October 11, 2023

September producer prices confirm economic tailwind has ended

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   - by New Deal democrat My strong suspicion has been that the tailwind of declining commodity prices, typified by the big decline in gas p...