Friday, October 6, 2023

An excellent headline jobs number may mask unresolved seasonality, while unemployment weakness “stuck” at a higher level

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   - by New Deal democrat As per my reporting earlier this week, my focus this month was on whether wage and jobs growth continue to deceler...
Thursday, October 5, 2023

Very strong initial jobless claims probably the result of unresolved post-pandemic seasonality

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   -  by New Deal democrat It continues to be reasonably clear that there is some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in initial jobless cl...
Wednesday, October 4, 2023

The current economic “big picture”: by no means are we out of the woods

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   - by New Deal democrat There is no particularly important economic news out today, so let me take this opportunity to step back and give ...
Tuesday, October 3, 2023

August JOLTS report: a pause in deceleration, but the trend remains intact

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   - by New Deal democrat Last month I concluded my post on the July JOLTS report’s sharp declines by noting that “N one of these statistics...
Monday, October 2, 2023

Manufacturing and construction have the most positive reports all year

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, the monthly data starts out with reports on the two most important production sectors of the economy, na...
Saturday, September 30, 2023

Weekly Indicators for September 25 - 29 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Interest rates continued to head higher, with mortgage rates br...
Friday, September 29, 2023

Consumer spending holds up well in August, despite ending of disinflation

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   - by New Deal democrat  As I have repeated for the past several months, in the current economy the personal spending and income report i...
Thursday, September 28, 2023

Initial jobless claims remain higher on a YoY basis, but do not suggest near term recession

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 last week to 211,000. The 4 week moving average declined -6,250 to 211,000. With...
Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Why the public still views inflation as a major problem, despite the official numbers

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   - by New Deal democrat This is the topic I indicated last week I wanted to write about more at length.  Paul Krugman wrote last week abou...
Tuesday, September 26, 2023

New 20+ year record high mortgage rates begin to impact home sales; bifurcation in new vs. existing home prices continues

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   - by New Deal democrat In addition to updated reports on new home sales and prices, and existing home prices this morning, there’s some ...
Saturday, September 23, 2023

Weekly Indicators for September 18 - 22 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . With interest rates at or near multi-decade highs, and the exis...
Friday, September 22, 2023

The Big Picture of the housing market, and its almost complete bifurcation, in 3 easy graphs

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   - by New Deal democrat I want to spend some time commenting on the broader issue of why the public perceives that inflation is still ramp...