Saturday, September 30, 2023

Weekly Indicators for September 25 - 29 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Interest rates continued to head higher, with mortgage rates br...
Friday, September 29, 2023

Consumer spending holds up well in August, despite ending of disinflation

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   - by New Deal democrat  As I have repeated for the past several months, in the current economy the personal spending and income report i...
Thursday, September 28, 2023

Initial jobless claims remain higher on a YoY basis, but do not suggest near term recession

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 last week to 211,000. The 4 week moving average declined -6,250 to 211,000. With...
Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Why the public still views inflation as a major problem, despite the official numbers

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   - by New Deal democrat This is the topic I indicated last week I wanted to write about more at length.  Paul Krugman wrote last week abou...
Tuesday, September 26, 2023

New 20+ year record high mortgage rates begin to impact home sales; bifurcation in new vs. existing home prices continues

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   - by New Deal democrat In addition to updated reports on new home sales and prices, and existing home prices this morning, there’s some ...
Saturday, September 23, 2023

Weekly Indicators for September 18 - 22 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . With interest rates at or near multi-decade highs, and the exis...
Friday, September 22, 2023

The Big Picture of the housing market, and its almost complete bifurcation, in 3 easy graphs

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   - by New Deal democrat I want to spend some time commenting on the broader issue of why the public perceives that inflation is still ramp...
Thursday, September 21, 2023

With sales near 25 year lows, the huge divergence between the existing and new home markets continues

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    - by New Deal democrat The drastic bifurcation between the new and existing home markets continues. Existing home sales fell to 4.04 mil...

Initial jobless claims: unresolved seasonality obscures cautionary YoY comparisons

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   - by New Deal democrat  For the last few weeks, I have been highlighting that there is likely some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality ...
Wednesday, September 20, 2023

Using the stock market and unemployment as an easy and timely coincident recession indicator

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   - by New Deal democrat  My fellow forecaster Bob Dieli has a measure he calls “DeltaDelta,” basically an average of the YoY% change in ...
Tuesday, September 19, 2023

The long awaited downturn in multi-family construction may finally have happened

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    - by New Deal democrat With the relative fading of manufacturing in importance to the US economy, the leading construction sector has as...
Monday, September 18, 2023

The 2 big reasons (one obvious, one subtle) why real median household income declined in 2022

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   - by New Deal democrat Last week, with its usual very big lag, median household income was reported by the Census Bureau for 2022. If, g...