Saturday, September 23, 2023

Weekly Indicators for September 18 - 22 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . With interest rates at or near multi-decade highs, and the exis...
Friday, September 22, 2023

The Big Picture of the housing market, and its almost complete bifurcation, in 3 easy graphs

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   - by New Deal democrat I want to spend some time commenting on the broader issue of why the public perceives that inflation is still ramp...
Thursday, September 21, 2023

With sales near 25 year lows, the huge divergence between the existing and new home markets continues

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    - by New Deal democrat The drastic bifurcation between the new and existing home markets continues. Existing home sales fell to 4.04 mil...

Initial jobless claims: unresolved seasonality obscures cautionary YoY comparisons

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   - by New Deal democrat  For the last few weeks, I have been highlighting that there is likely some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality ...
Wednesday, September 20, 2023

Using the stock market and unemployment as an easy and timely coincident recession indicator

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   - by New Deal democrat  My fellow forecaster Bob Dieli has a measure he calls “DeltaDelta,” basically an average of the YoY% change in ...
Tuesday, September 19, 2023

The long awaited downturn in multi-family construction may finally have happened

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    - by New Deal democrat With the relative fading of manufacturing in importance to the US economy, the leading construction sector has as...
Monday, September 18, 2023

The 2 big reasons (one obvious, one subtle) why real median household income declined in 2022

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   - by New Deal democrat Last week, with its usual very big lag, median household income was reported by the Census Bureau for 2022. If, g...
Saturday, September 16, 2023

Weekly Indicators for September 11 - 15 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The only significant change in any metric is that manufacturing...
Friday, September 15, 2023

Has industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, been dethroned?

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   - by New Deal democrat Industrial production in the post-WW2 era was the King of Coincident Indicators. In the past 20 years, it may have...
Thursday, September 14, 2023

Real retail sales continue to be weak; continue to forecast weakening jobs reports

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    - by New Deal democrat As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite metrics because it tells us so much about the consumer and, indirect...

The economic tailwind from falling commodity prices has likely ended

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   - by New Deal democrat [Note: I’ll post on the August retail sales report later today.] Two days ago in my PPI and CPI overview, I wrote ...

Initial jobless claims maintain renewed yellow caution flag

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   - by New Deal democrat Some post-pandemic unresolved seasonality may be affecting the weekly claims figures, as just like last year, they...
Wednesday, September 13, 2023

August consumer inflation confirms “Goldilocks” “soft landing” may well be “transitory”

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    - by New Deal democrat Let me start by quoting from my post yesterday: “As to consumer prices, I am most interested in the relative weig...