Saturday, September 9, 2023

Weekly Indicators for September 4 - 8 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The tug of war between the headwind of high interest rates and t...
Friday, September 8, 2023

Coronavirus update: the virus is back; everyone should return to their prior precautions and get boosted this fall

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   - by New Deal democrat At the beginning of this year, I indicated that I anticipated only writing about Covid if something significant w...
Thursday, September 7, 2023

Despite 6+ month low in initial claims, yellow caution flag remains

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   - by New Deal democrat Last week the initial claims numbers justified restarting the yellow caution flag.  This week initial jobless clai...
Wednesday, September 6, 2023

Scenes from the August employment report - and a warning

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   - by New Deal democrat The weekly lull after last Friday’s employment report will end tomorrow. In the meantime, let’s take a deeper div...
Tuesday, September 5, 2023

Vehicle sales and residential and manufacturing plant construction continue to outweigh general manufacturing downturn

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   -  by New Deal democrat  No important economic news today, but on Friday in addition to the employment report we did get our typical 1s...
Saturday, September 2, 2023

Weekly Indicators for August 28 - September 1 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The long leading indicators continue to forecast that a hard l...
Friday, September 1, 2023

August jobs report: deceleration shows up in spades

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   - by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, particularly manufacturing and residential constr...
Thursday, August 31, 2023

Real personal spending (driven by vehicles?) spikes, income stalls, saving tanks, and inflation edges back up

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    - by New Deal democrat  As I have repeated for the past several months, in the current economy the personal spending and income report ...

YoY initial claims restart the yellow caution flag, suggest unemployment will rise towards 4.0%

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   - by New Deal democrat I’ll post on personal income and spending a little later. But first, initial jobless claims declined -4,000 to 228...
Wednesday, August 30, 2023

July JOLTS report: is the game of reverse musical chairs in employment ending?

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   - by New Deal democrat  For the past 18 months, I’ve likened the job market to a game of reverse musical chairs, where there are more ch...
Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Frozen homeowners mean record low inventory, meaning existing home prices have stopped declining

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   - by New Deal democrat Before discussing this morning’s reports on existing home prices, let’s start with a look at new listings and tota...
Monday, August 28, 2023

Fed rate hikes in the face of declining commodity prices: an analysis of 4 precedents

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   - by New Deal democrat We live in interest-ing commodity times. Over the weekend, my latest piece at Seeking Alpha highlighted the stron...
Saturday, August 26, 2023

Weekly Indicators for August 21 - 25 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat While I was away on vacation, the high frequency data continued to pour in. And so my Weekly Indicators post for ...