Friday, August 18, 2023

The importance of 10 (and 20) year new highs in interest rates

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   - by New Deal democrat As you may have already read elsewhere, interest rates on the 10 year US Treasury just made a new 10+ year high. ...
Thursday, August 17, 2023

Initial claims travelin’ man edition: still below cautionary levels

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    - by New Deal democrat Initial claims were 250,000 last week. The 4 week average increased to 234,250. Continuing claims with a one week...

Industrial production improves, with help from vehicle production: travelin’ man edition

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    - by New Deal democrat Industrial production increased 1.0% in July. Its manufacturing component increased 0.5%. Total production is sti...
Wednesday, August 16, 2023

In housing construction, the last domino still refuses to fall: Travelin’ Man edition

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   - by New Deal democrat [First, a blogging note: I will be traveling for the next week and a half. I’ll keep posting the data, but the po...
Tuesday, August 15, 2023

July retail sales: gas and vehicle sales continue to dominate the trend

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   - by New Deal democrat As always, real retail sales tell us a great deal about what is happening in the consumer economy. July continued ...
Monday, August 14, 2023

This is the Big Story: a 100+ year near-record decline in commodity prices is enabling continued record wage growth and employment

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   - by New Deal democrat No important economic data today, so let me elaborate on the matter of “immaculate disinflation,” i.e., the declin...
Saturday, August 12, 2023

Weekly Indicators for August 7 - 11 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . For the moment we are in something of a holding pattern, in pa...
Friday, August 11, 2023

July producer prices: economic tailwind weakens, but still in place

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   - by New Deal democrat Normally I don’t pay too much attention to the producer price index, but because the steep decline in producer pri...
Thursday, August 10, 2023

July CPI: almost everything except fictitious shelter costs are getting close to the Fed’s comfort range

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   - by New Deal democrat Gasoline prices and fictitious shelter prices are once again moving in opposite directions, in a direct reversal ...

Initial jobless claims: a little soft, but continued expansion signaled

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   - by New Deal democrat I’ll put up an analysis of this morning’s CPI later. In the meantime, initial jobless claims rose 21,000 last week...
Wednesday, August 9, 2023

What to look for in tomorrow’s CPI and Friday’s PPI

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   - by New Deal democrat  We’re still in the post-jobs report lull in economic news today. That will end tomorrow with initial jobless cla...
Tuesday, August 8, 2023

Coronavirus special update: the annual summer wave has arrived

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   - by New Deal democrat As I wrote at the beginning of this year, I would only post Coronavirus updates if there appeared to be something ...
Monday, August 7, 2023

Scenes from the July employment report

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   - by New Deal democrat  On Friday I noted that the July employment report was a perfectly good, solid one in absolute terms, but that a...
Saturday, August 5, 2023

Weekly Indicators for July 31 - August 4, and long term forecast through H1 2024 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . No big changes in the data, but note that mortgage and other i...
Friday, August 4, 2023

July jobs report: almost across the board deterioration in leading sectors

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   - by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, and whether the leading indicators, particularly ...