Saturday, August 12, 2023

Weekly Indicators for August 7 - 11 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . For the moment we are in something of a holding pattern, in pa...
Friday, August 11, 2023

July producer prices: economic tailwind weakens, but still in place

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   - by New Deal democrat Normally I don’t pay too much attention to the producer price index, but because the steep decline in producer pri...
Thursday, August 10, 2023

July CPI: almost everything except fictitious shelter costs are getting close to the Fed’s comfort range

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   - by New Deal democrat Gasoline prices and fictitious shelter prices are once again moving in opposite directions, in a direct reversal ...

Initial jobless claims: a little soft, but continued expansion signaled

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   - by New Deal democrat I’ll put up an analysis of this morning’s CPI later. In the meantime, initial jobless claims rose 21,000 last week...
Wednesday, August 9, 2023

What to look for in tomorrow’s CPI and Friday’s PPI

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   - by New Deal democrat  We’re still in the post-jobs report lull in economic news today. That will end tomorrow with initial jobless cla...
Tuesday, August 8, 2023

Coronavirus special update: the annual summer wave has arrived

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   - by New Deal democrat As I wrote at the beginning of this year, I would only post Coronavirus updates if there appeared to be something ...
Monday, August 7, 2023

Scenes from the July employment report

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   - by New Deal democrat  On Friday I noted that the July employment report was a perfectly good, solid one in absolute terms, but that a...
Saturday, August 5, 2023

Weekly Indicators for July 31 - August 4, and long term forecast through H1 2024 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . No big changes in the data, but note that mortgage and other i...
Friday, August 4, 2023

July jobs report: almost across the board deterioration in leading sectors

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   - by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, and whether the leading indicators, particularly ...
Thursday, August 3, 2023

Jobless claims: a good example of why my forecasting discipline demands a confirmed trend

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims for the last week of July rose 6,000 to 227,000. The 4 week average decreased -5,500 to 228...
Wednesday, August 2, 2023

June’s JOLTS report: slow progress towards a new equilibrium

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   - by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for June captured a labor market that continues to move towards a new equilibrium, mainl...
Tuesday, August 1, 2023

Manufacturing and construction give very mixed signals to start Second Half 2023 data

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, the month’s data started out with the ISM manufacturing report for last month, and construction spending...
Monday, July 31, 2023

Dow Theory says transportation and production of goods should move in tandem; what is its message now?

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   - by New Deal democrat Partly because mid year data is now being completed, and partly to re-examine my forecasts, I’ve been conducting a...