Saturday, August 5, 2023

Weekly Indicators for July 31 - August 4, and long term forecast through H1 2024 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . No big changes in the data, but note that mortgage and other i...
Friday, August 4, 2023

July jobs report: almost across the board deterioration in leading sectors

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   - by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, and whether the leading indicators, particularly ...
Thursday, August 3, 2023

Jobless claims: a good example of why my forecasting discipline demands a confirmed trend

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims for the last week of July rose 6,000 to 227,000. The 4 week average decreased -5,500 to 228...
Wednesday, August 2, 2023

June’s JOLTS report: slow progress towards a new equilibrium

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   - by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for June captured a labor market that continues to move towards a new equilibrium, mainl...
Tuesday, August 1, 2023

Manufacturing and construction give very mixed signals to start Second Half 2023 data

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, the month’s data started out with the ISM manufacturing report for last month, and construction spending...
Monday, July 31, 2023

Dow Theory says transportation and production of goods should move in tandem; what is its message now?

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   - by New Deal democrat Partly because mid year data is now being completed, and partly to re-examine my forecasts, I’ve been conducting a...
Saturday, July 29, 2023

Weekly Indicators for July 24 - 28 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . While there continues to be evidence of the normal progression...
Friday, July 28, 2023

Driven by the hurricane force disinflationary tailwind, real personal spending and income, and real sales, all increase nicely

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   - by New Deal democrat In the current economy the personal spending and income report is just as important as the jobs report. That’s bec...
Thursday, July 27, 2023

Q2 GDP indicates continued good expansion now, but more storm clouds gathered ahead

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   - by New Deal democrat Now let’s deal with this morning’s big news: real GDP improved at a perfectly respectable 0.6% over the first Quar...

Continuing improvement in new jobless claims re-sets the clock

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s get the easy part of this morning’s slew of data out of the way first:  initial jobless claims declined -7,0...
Wednesday, July 26, 2023

Prices for new single family homes down YoY,, while sales fluctuate; apartment rent changes YoY are zero

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   - by New Deal democrat June’s new home sales, and Apartment List’s Rent Report , this morning rounded out our view of this important lead...
Tuesday, July 25, 2023

House prices stabilize (or even increase!) for existing homes, while prices have been slashed for new homes. What’s going on?

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   - by New Deal democrat Both the Case Shiller and FHFA housing price indexes were reported this morning through May. To quote each in tur...