Saturday, July 22, 2023

Weekly Indicators for July 17 - 21 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha .  At least when it comes to weekly measures of consumer spending...
Friday, July 21, 2023

How long until the historically tight jobs market reverts to trend?

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   - by New Deal democrat There are some very unusual cross-currents going on in the housing sector, revealed by yesterday’s existing home ...
Thursday, July 20, 2023

Jobless claims: close but no cigar for the red flag

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -9,000 to 228,000 last week, and the four week average declined -9,250 to 237,500. Contin...
Wednesday, July 19, 2023

June housing report: a tale a two diametrically opposed sectors

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   - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that housing under construction, along with new vehicle sales, were two important reasons that n...
Tuesday, July 18, 2023

Industrial and manufacturing production continue to falter

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    - by New Deal democrat I frequently call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because so often the turning point in ...

June retail sales continue to falter, with the important exception of motor vehicles

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite indicators, because it tells us so much about the 70% of the US econo...
Sunday, July 16, 2023

Weekly Indicators for July 10 - 14 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Several indicators that had been stubbornly positive throughou...
Friday, July 14, 2023

The American working class is doing better, thank you very much

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   - by New Deal democrat With the release of the CPI report earlier this week, I can update several measures of average middle class Ameri...
Thursday, July 13, 2023

Initial claims move closer to red flag recession warning

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -12,000 last week to 237,000. The four week average declined -6,750 to 246,750. Wi...
Wednesday, July 12, 2023

June inflation almost non-existent except for the fictitious measures of shelter

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 - by New Deal democrat   The message of this morning’s consumer inflation report was the same for almost everything except for the fictitio...
Tuesday, July 11, 2023

Scenes from the employment report: important leading and coincident indicators of recession

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    - by New Deal democrat Here’s another detailed look at some significant data from last Friday’s employment report.  In this post I’ll lo...
Monday, July 10, 2023

Scenes from the June employment report: consumption leads employment, goods vs. services edition

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   - by New Deal democrat No big new economic news today, so let’s take a more in-depth look at some of the information from Friday’s employ...
Saturday, July 8, 2023

Weekly Indicators for July 3 - 7 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . A real-time daily update of inflation (based on millions of pri...
Friday, July 7, 2023

June jobs report: deceleration conitinues, with weakest private jobs sector growth since 2020

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   - by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, and whether the leading indicators, particularly ...
Thursday, July 6, 2023

May JOLTS report: continued decelerating trend, but still extremely positive

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   - by New Deal democrat Let me start out with the statement that has been my touchstone for the JOLTS report for the last year or more: f...