Friday, July 14, 2023

The American working class is doing better, thank you very much

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   - by New Deal democrat With the release of the CPI report earlier this week, I can update several measures of average middle class Ameri...
Thursday, July 13, 2023

Initial claims move closer to red flag recession warning

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -12,000 last week to 237,000. The four week average declined -6,750 to 246,750. Wi...
Wednesday, July 12, 2023

June inflation almost non-existent except for the fictitious measures of shelter

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 - by New Deal democrat   The message of this morning’s consumer inflation report was the same for almost everything except for the fictitio...
Tuesday, July 11, 2023

Scenes from the employment report: important leading and coincident indicators of recession

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    - by New Deal democrat Here’s another detailed look at some significant data from last Friday’s employment report.  In this post I’ll lo...
Monday, July 10, 2023

Scenes from the June employment report: consumption leads employment, goods vs. services edition

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   - by New Deal democrat No big new economic news today, so let’s take a more in-depth look at some of the information from Friday’s employ...
Saturday, July 8, 2023

Weekly Indicators for July 3 - 7 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . A real-time daily update of inflation (based on millions of pri...
Friday, July 7, 2023

June jobs report: deceleration conitinues, with weakest private jobs sector growth since 2020

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   - by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, and whether the leading indicators, particularly ...
Thursday, July 6, 2023

May JOLTS report: continued decelerating trend, but still extremely positive

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   - by New Deal democrat Let me start out with the statement that has been my touchstone for the JOLTS report for the last year or more: f...

Initial jobless claims: moving closer to a red flag warning

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims for jobless benefits rose 12,000 last week to 248,000. The 4 week average declined -3,500 to 253,25...
Wednesday, July 5, 2023

MIdyear update: the state of the big monthly coincident indicators

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at the important monthly coincident indicators that the NBER has indicated they weight most heav...

Coronavirus update: mid year 2023

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    - by New Deal democrat I haven’t done an update on the state of COVID since March or April. As we are halfway through the year, and just...
Tuesday, July 4, 2023

A brief essay for July 4, 2023

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   - by New Deal democrat Selections from Brutus , the anti-federalist who argued against the Constitution’s institution of the Supreme Cour...
Monday, July 3, 2023

Manufacturing and construction sectors continue downward pull on economy

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with new manufacturing and construction data. The ISM manufacturing index goes all th...