Saturday, June 24, 2023

Weekly Indicators for June 19 - 23 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . When nothing dramatic is happening, high frequency information ...
Friday, June 23, 2023

Back to the basics: how do initial claims, total hours worked, aggregate real payrolls, and job growth relate?

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    - by New Deal democrat  One of the most important reasons why big Fed rate hikes and big downturns in things like housing starts and cr...
Thursday, June 22, 2023

Initial claims: yellow caution flag turns more orange

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims, which were one of the most positive indicators of all last year, have turned darker in the last se...
Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Real wage growth leads spending; meaning spending seems likely to stall after an increase over the next few months

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    - by New Deal democrat No big economic news today, so I wanted to pick up on a subject I began a week ago Monday; namely, taking a detai...
Tuesday, June 20, 2023

Housing under construction increases back close to record; good economic news, but ammunition for a hawkish Fed

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   - by New Deal democrat Last month I wrote that “ the Fed’s sledgehammer attempt via one of the most aggressive rate hike campaigns in its...
Monday, June 19, 2023

A comment on Juneteenth; and what I’ll be looking for in tomorrow’s housing report

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   - by New Deal democrat That Juneteenth is a national holiday ought to be a full rebuttal to those who think that teaching the entirety of...
Saturday, June 17, 2023

Weekly Indicators for June 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Stocks are really buying the “soft landing” scenario, rising t...
Friday, June 16, 2023

Real total business sales estimated unchanged for both April and May, 1% below January peak

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   - by New Deal democrat A recession is a sustained and significant downturn in production, sales, income, and employment. Here’s what the...
Thursday, June 15, 2023

Industrial production continues to falter in May

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    - by New Deal democrat My final update this morning is for industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, which has most freq...

Real retail sales continue to suggest recession, decelerating employment gains

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   - by New Deal democrat The second of the three important datapoints this morning was retail sales for May. This is one of my favorite ind...

Initial and continuing claims edge closer to signaling recession

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   - by New Deal democrat There’s a blizzard of data this morning. I’ll report on retail sales and Industrial production later. But let’s st...
Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Producer prices continue sharp deceleration; real average and aggregate nonsupervisory pay continues to increase

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    - by New Deal democrat Historically producer prices were more upstream of consumer prices, but since the 1990s and the employment of “ju...
Tuesday, June 13, 2023

CPI less shelter up only 0.7% in last 11 months (0.8% annualized rate)

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   - by New Deal democrat Let me cut to the chase right from the outset: except for the very lagging measures of shelter; motor vehicle part...