Saturday, June 17, 2023

Weekly Indicators for June 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Stocks are really buying the “soft landing” scenario, rising t...
Friday, June 16, 2023

Real total business sales estimated unchanged for both April and May, 1% below January peak

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   - by New Deal democrat A recession is a sustained and significant downturn in production, sales, income, and employment. Here’s what the...
Thursday, June 15, 2023

Industrial production continues to falter in May

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    - by New Deal democrat My final update this morning is for industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, which has most freq...

Real retail sales continue to suggest recession, decelerating employment gains

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   - by New Deal democrat The second of the three important datapoints this morning was retail sales for May. This is one of my favorite ind...

Initial and continuing claims edge closer to signaling recession

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   - by New Deal democrat There’s a blizzard of data this morning. I’ll report on retail sales and Industrial production later. But let’s st...
Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Producer prices continue sharp deceleration; real average and aggregate nonsupervisory pay continues to increase

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    - by New Deal democrat Historically producer prices were more upstream of consumer prices, but since the 1990s and the employment of “ju...
Tuesday, June 13, 2023

CPI less shelter up only 0.7% in last 11 months (0.8% annualized rate)

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   - by New Deal democrat Let me cut to the chase right from the outset: except for the very lagging measures of shelter; motor vehicle part...
Monday, June 12, 2023

Are personal consumption expenditures a helpful forecasting (or even nowcasting) metric? An overview

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   - by New Deal democrat As I’ve noted a number of times recently, in addition to payrolls the other positive datapoint keeping the economy...
Sunday, June 11, 2023

Weekly Indicators for June 5 - 9 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat Forgot to do this yesterday, so let’s take care of that now … My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . A...
Friday, June 9, 2023

Real business sales estimate: up 0.3% in April, but still below January peak

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   - by New Deal democrat Let me start today by re-upping this graph of the current state of the coincident indicators mentioned by the NBER...
Thursday, June 8, 2023

Initial and continuing claims: yellow caution flag reinstated

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims rose sharply last week, up 28,000 to 261,000 (an 18 month high). The 4 week average rose 7,500 to 2...
Wednesday, June 7, 2023

Scenes from the employment report: an important trend in self-employment; and real aggregate payrolls

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    - by New Deal democrat We’re still in the week of drought following the payrolls release last Friday. Today let’s take a look at a few m...
Tuesday, June 6, 2023

The consumer may finally be faltering

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   - by New Deal democrat At this point I think the “smart” econ take is that either any recession is very much delayed, or even not going t...