Friday, June 9, 2023

Real business sales estimate: up 0.3% in April, but still below January peak

›
   - by New Deal democrat Let me start today by re-upping this graph of the current state of the coincident indicators mentioned by the NBER...
Thursday, June 8, 2023

Initial and continuing claims: yellow caution flag reinstated

›
   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims rose sharply last week, up 28,000 to 261,000 (an 18 month high). The 4 week average rose 7,500 to 2...
Wednesday, June 7, 2023

Scenes from the employment report: an important trend in self-employment; and real aggregate payrolls

›
    - by New Deal democrat We’re still in the week of drought following the payrolls release last Friday. Today let’s take a look at a few m...
Tuesday, June 6, 2023

The consumer may finally be faltering

›
   - by New Deal democrat At this point I think the “smart” econ take is that either any recession is very much delayed, or even not going t...
Monday, June 5, 2023

Scenes from the May employment report: leading indicators and the big picture

›
    - by New Deal democrat As I wrote Friday, the May employment report was deeply bifurcated, with a strong Establishment survey, but a wea...
Saturday, June 3, 2023

Weekly Indicators for May 29 - June 2 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . Much like yesterday’s employment report, which showed a deep...
Friday, June 2, 2023

Dueling May jobs reports: establishment report strong, household report pre-recessionary

›
   - by New Deal democrat My focus for this report continued to be whether the leading sectors and other indicators  continued to decline, a...
Thursday, June 1, 2023

Intensified decline in manufacturing, but another sign of a bottom in residential construction

›
   - by New Deal democrat A s usual, we start the month with reports on last month’s manufacturing, and construction from two months ago. T...

New and improved initial claims! Now including comparison to Sahm Rule

›
   - by New Deal democrat I’m making an important addition to my weekly blurb on jobless claims this week: I’m showing how it compares with...
Wednesday, May 31, 2023

April JOLTS report noisily shows continued deceleration

›
   - by New Deal democrat It is always a bad idea simply to project a current trend forward, especially with data series that are noisy and ...