Friday, May 19, 2023

Housing update: sales have bottomed, prices in process

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   - by New Deal democrat No important economic news today. Yesterday existing home sales were released, but their economic impact isn’t all...
Thursday, May 18, 2023

Jobless claims: yellow caution flag persists

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   - by New Deal democrat In response to last week’s big jump in new jobless claims to 264,000, I wrote that it might be an outlier vs. the ...
Wednesday, May 17, 2023

A Fed nightmare? Housing permits and starts confirm improvement from bottom, multi-unit construction sets new record high

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   - by New Deal democrat Housing construction is perhaps the single most important method by which the Fed seeks to translate its interest ...
Tuesday, May 16, 2023

March total business sales strongly suggest that real total sales have entered a downturn

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    - by New Deal democrat Today’s final significant economic report was total business sales for March. This is a nominal figure; the “real...

April industrial production looks great! - until you account for the March revisions

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   - by New Deal democrat The second of this morning’s three significant economic releases was April industrial production, and here the rev...

Real retail sales for April are flat, off sharply YoY, and near the bottom of their 2 year range

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   - by New Deal democrat The first of today’s three significant economic releases was retail sales, which were up +0.4% nominally for the m...
Monday, May 15, 2023

The question for tomorrow: is the producer side of the economy rolling over?

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    - by New Deal democrat There’s no important economic news today, but tomorrow there will be several important updates, including real re...
Saturday, May 13, 2023

Weekly Indicators for May 8 - 12 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . There was more slow deterioration in the coincident indicato...
Friday, May 12, 2023

Real hourly and aggregate wages update; plus further comments on consumer and producer inflation

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s update some inflation-related information. First of all, real hourly wages for non-managerial personnel inc...
Thursday, May 11, 2023

Yellow flag from initial jobless claims turns a little more orangey

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 22,000 to 264,000 last week, while the 4 week average rose 6,000 to 245,250. Continuin...
Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Inflation ex-shelter increasing at 1.0% annualized rate since last June; core inflation with actual house prices only up 3.0% YoY

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    - by New Deal democrat Two months ago, I “officially” took the position that inflation had been conquered, and that, properly measured, ...
Tuesday, May 9, 2023

Credit conditions worsen, and likely to worsen further due to Debt Ceiling Debacle II

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   - by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey, which measures credit on offer by banks, and the demand for credit by their custo...