Saturday, May 6, 2023

Weekly Indicators for May 1 - 5 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . Stock prices had been in an uptrend since last October, but ...
Friday, May 5, 2023

April jobs report: deceleration continues, with sharp downward revisions to previous months’ gains

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    - by New Deal democrat My focus for this report continued to be whether the leading sectors and other indicators  continued to decline, ...
Thursday, May 4, 2023

Jobless claims hoist yellow flag again; employment and unemployment likely to show further deceleration tomorrow

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 242,000 last week, while the 4 week average rose 3,500 to 239,250. Continuin...
Wednesday, May 3, 2023

The un(der)employment rate leads wage growth: 2023 update

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   - by New Deal democrat  I had already planned on taking an updated look at wage growth today, but there was a little flutter on twitter ...
Tuesday, May 2, 2023

March JOLTS report shows labor market about halfway to pre-pandemic normalization

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  - by New Deal democrat The title of this piece is an important to clue the relative nature of this morning’s Job Openings and Labor Turnov...
Monday, May 1, 2023

Manufacturing and construction start out the month’s data to the negative side

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with reports on last month’s manufacturing, and construction from two months ago. The...
Saturday, April 29, 2023

Weekly Indicators for April 24 - 28 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Several important short leading indicators rallied this week. ...
Friday, April 28, 2023

A mixed picture on real personal income, savings, and spending in March, and real total sales in February

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   - by New Deal democrat As I’ve indicated a number of times recently, right now I consider the report on personal income and spending co-e...
Thursday, April 27, 2023

Leading components of Q1 GDP paint a mixed picture

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    - by New Deal democrat As you probably already know, real GDP increased 1.1% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in Q1. This doesn’...

Four week average of initial claims drops below “yellow flag” level, for now

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   - by New Deal democrat While GDP will get the lion’s share of attention today (and I’ll post on it later on), by and large it is a look ...
Wednesday, April 26, 2023

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   - by New Deal democrat Aside from the monthly jobs report, at this time imo the most important economic data will be issued this Friday: ...

Transportation orders increase, but core capital goods orders decline further in March

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   - by New Deal democrat Durable goods orders increased in March by 3.2%, which sounds great, except that it was primarily transportation o...
Tuesday, April 25, 2023

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   - by New Deal democrat  For the past few months I have speculated that home sales were bottoming. This morning’s report on March new hom...

House prices on track to go negative YoY by summer, despite monthly increase in February

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   - by New Deal democrat House prices through February as measured by both the FHFA (gold in the graphs below) and Case Shiller (red) Inde...
Monday, April 24, 2023

Income tax withholding payments stumble again

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    - by New Deal democrat The important data this week will include new home sales tomorrow, Q1 GDP and initial jobless claims on Thursday,...
Sunday, April 23, 2023

The last dissent of Thurgood Marshall: the Rule of Law vs. the transitory Edicts of 5-4 Court majorities

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    - by New Deal democrat Daniel Kiel at the TPM Cafe, on the supreme differences between Clarence Thomas and his predecessor, Thurgood Mar...