Saturday, April 29, 2023

Weekly Indicators for April 24 - 28 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Several important short leading indicators rallied this week. ...
Friday, April 28, 2023

A mixed picture on real personal income, savings, and spending in March, and real total sales in February

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   - by New Deal democrat As I’ve indicated a number of times recently, right now I consider the report on personal income and spending co-e...
Thursday, April 27, 2023

Leading components of Q1 GDP paint a mixed picture

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    - by New Deal democrat As you probably already know, real GDP increased 1.1% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in Q1. This doesn’...

Four week average of initial claims drops below “yellow flag” level, for now

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   - by New Deal democrat While GDP will get the lion’s share of attention today (and I’ll post on it later on), by and large it is a look ...
Wednesday, April 26, 2023

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   - by New Deal democrat Aside from the monthly jobs report, at this time imo the most important economic data will be issued this Friday: ...

Transportation orders increase, but core capital goods orders decline further in March

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   - by New Deal democrat Durable goods orders increased in March by 3.2%, which sounds great, except that it was primarily transportation o...
Tuesday, April 25, 2023

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   - by New Deal democrat  For the past few months I have speculated that home sales were bottoming. This morning’s report on March new hom...

House prices on track to go negative YoY by summer, despite monthly increase in February

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   - by New Deal democrat House prices through February as measured by both the FHFA (gold in the graphs below) and Case Shiller (red) Inde...
Monday, April 24, 2023

Income tax withholding payments stumble again

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    - by New Deal democrat The important data this week will include new home sales tomorrow, Q1 GDP and initial jobless claims on Thursday,...
Sunday, April 23, 2023

The last dissent of Thurgood Marshall: the Rule of Law vs. the transitory Edicts of 5-4 Court majorities

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    - by New Deal democrat Daniel Kiel at the TPM Cafe, on the supreme differences between Clarence Thomas and his predecessor, Thurgood Mar...
Saturday, April 22, 2023

Weekly Indicators for April 17 - 21 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . There’s more *extremely* slow deterioration in some coincident ...
Friday, April 21, 2023

The economic tailwind from last autumn’s declining gas prices is probably over

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    - by New Deal democrat On Wednesday I discussed how gas prices, with an assist from higher stock prices leading to stock options being c...
Thursday, April 20, 2023

Jobless claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag, while continuing claims shade closer to crimson

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims (blue in the graph below) continued their recent track into recession caution territory this week, ...
Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Coincident indicators hold on, mainly due to improvement in gas prices YoY

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   - by New Deal democrat I’ve been paying particular attention lately to the coincident indicators, because the leading indicators have tel...