Saturday, April 22, 2023

Weekly Indicators for April 17 - 21 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . There’s more *extremely* slow deterioration in some coincident ...
Friday, April 21, 2023

The economic tailwind from last autumn’s declining gas prices is probably over

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    - by New Deal democrat On Wednesday I discussed how gas prices, with an assist from higher stock prices leading to stock options being c...
Thursday, April 20, 2023

Jobless claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag, while continuing claims shade closer to crimson

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims (blue in the graph below) continued their recent track into recession caution territory this week, ...
Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Coincident indicators hold on, mainly due to improvement in gas prices YoY

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   - by New Deal democrat I’ve been paying particular attention lately to the coincident indicators, because the leading indicators have tel...
Tuesday, April 18, 2023

New housing construction appears to have bottomed; but expect further declines in construction employment ahead

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  - by New Deal democrat For the past few months, I’ve noted that new home sales, which while very volatile frequently are the first metric ...
Monday, April 17, 2023

Two “fundamental” indicators for the American middle/working class and the economy

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 - by New Deal democrat This week is a little light on data, except for housing permits and starts (Tuesday) and existing home sales (Thurs...
Saturday, April 15, 2023

Weekly Indicators for April 10 -14 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My ‘Weekly Indicators’ post is up at Seeking Alpha . The slow drip-drip-drip of deceleration generally continues....
Friday, April 14, 2023

Real manufacturing and trade sales probably rose to a new record high in February; may have declined in March

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   - by New Deal democrat  Real manufacturing and trade sales is one of the 4 monthly coincident indicators most monitored by the NBER to ...

Positive revisions make for a good March industrial production report

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   - by New Deal democrat If retail sales for March were bad, industrial production (blue in the graph below) was at very least mixed to the...

March real retail sales lay an egg, suggest downturn in nonfarm payrolls by the end of summer

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   - by New Deal democrat   After a quiet early part of the week, today we get a deluge of data: retail sales and industrial production for ...
Thursday, April 13, 2023

Initial claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims last week rose 11,000 to 239,000. The more important 4 week average rose 2,250 to 240,000. ...
Wednesday, April 12, 2023

Properly measured, consumer inflation is only about 3.0% YoY, and the economy has experience DEflation since last June

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   - by New Deal democrat One month ago, I “officially” took the position that inflation had been conquered, and that, properly measured, th...
Tuesday, April 11, 2023

Scenes from the March employment report 2: unemployment recession indicators

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   - by New Deal democrat A reminder: I may be offline for the next couple of days. In the meantime, yesterday I looked at the 5 leading ind...
Monday, April 10, 2023

Scenes from the March employment report 1: leading sector indicators

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   - by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news this week until Wednesday’s CPI report, and as a side note, I might be offlin...
Saturday, April 8, 2023

Weekly Indicators for April 3 - 7 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha .  Probably unsurprisingly, the big news this week was the effect...
Friday, April 7, 2023

March jobs report: leading sectors turn down in a pre-recessionary, but still quite positive, report

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    - by New Deal democrat Unsurprisingly, my focus on this report, like the last few reports, was on whether residential construction jobs ...