Saturday, April 15, 2023

Weekly Indicators for April 10 -14 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My ‘Weekly Indicators’ post is up at Seeking Alpha . The slow drip-drip-drip of deceleration generally continues....
Friday, April 14, 2023

Real manufacturing and trade sales probably rose to a new record high in February; may have declined in March

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   - by New Deal democrat  Real manufacturing and trade sales is one of the 4 monthly coincident indicators most monitored by the NBER to ...

Positive revisions make for a good March industrial production report

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   - by New Deal democrat If retail sales for March were bad, industrial production (blue in the graph below) was at very least mixed to the...

March real retail sales lay an egg, suggest downturn in nonfarm payrolls by the end of summer

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   - by New Deal democrat   After a quiet early part of the week, today we get a deluge of data: retail sales and industrial production for ...
Thursday, April 13, 2023

Initial claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims last week rose 11,000 to 239,000. The more important 4 week average rose 2,250 to 240,000. ...
Wednesday, April 12, 2023

Properly measured, consumer inflation is only about 3.0% YoY, and the economy has experience DEflation since last June

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   - by New Deal democrat One month ago, I “officially” took the position that inflation had been conquered, and that, properly measured, th...
Tuesday, April 11, 2023

Scenes from the March employment report 2: unemployment recession indicators

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   - by New Deal democrat A reminder: I may be offline for the next couple of days. In the meantime, yesterday I looked at the 5 leading ind...
Monday, April 10, 2023

Scenes from the March employment report 1: leading sector indicators

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   - by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news this week until Wednesday’s CPI report, and as a side note, I might be offlin...
Saturday, April 8, 2023

Weekly Indicators for April 3 - 7 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha .  Probably unsurprisingly, the big news this week was the effect...
Friday, April 7, 2023

March jobs report: leading sectors turn down in a pre-recessionary, but still quite positive, report

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    - by New Deal democrat Unsurprisingly, my focus on this report, like the last few reports, was on whether residential construction jobs ...
Thursday, April 6, 2023

Revisions cause initial claims, the last positive leading indicator, to capitulate

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 - by New Deal democrat Initial and continuing claims underwent some serious revisions with this week’s release. Rather than attempt an expl...
Wednesday, April 5, 2023

One of the last of the positive short leading indicators rolls over

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 - by New Deal democrat The only economic release today of any significance was the ISM non-manufacturing index, which tracks services. It i...
Tuesday, April 4, 2023

February JOLTS report shows further *relative* weakening in the jobs market

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   - by New Deal democrat The February JOLTS report showed a weakening in almost all important trends. The strongest component of the entire...
Monday, April 3, 2023

Both manufacturing and construction continue to contract

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with data on last month’s manufacturing activity, and the previous month’s constructi...
Sunday, April 2, 2023

Weekly Indicators for March 27 - 31 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat I keep forgetting to put up this link on Saturdays, but you know where to find it: my Weekly Indicators post is up...
Friday, March 31, 2023

Real income in February rises slightly; real spending declines slightly; real total sales in January rose sharply, as expected

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   - by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, personal income and outlays is one of the two most important data releases at the cu...