Friday, March 10, 2023

February jobs report: the decelerating trend resumes

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       - by New Deal democrat As I’ve written several times this week, my focus on this report was on whether manufacturing and residenti...
Thursday, March 9, 2023

Jobless claims, like JOLTS, consistent with softening within a strong labor market

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   - by New Deal democrat  Initial jobless claims increased 21,000 last week to 211,000, still a very low number even if it is the highest...
Wednesday, March 8, 2023

January JOLTS report consistent with a softening, but still very strong, labor market

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s JOLTS report for January, unlike the recent payrolls report, generally showed further softening in...
Tuesday, March 7, 2023

Coronavirus dashboard: the first year of COVID endemicity

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   - by New Deal democrat  As I indicated back in January, I don’t plan on any regular COVID dashboard updates unless something noteworthy...
Monday, March 6, 2023

The Fed still seems determined to bring about a recession

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   - by New Deal democrat As I wrote on Saturday, several coincident indicators have stabilized in the past several months (for example, Red...
Saturday, March 4, 2023

Weekly Indicators for February 27 - March 3 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . A number of indicators which had been declining have stabilize...
Friday, March 3, 2023

Real final sales and inventories as portents of recession

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    - by New Deal democrat As I have mentioned previously from time to time, I read people who have interesting things to say even if their ...
Thursday, March 2, 2023

Jobless claims: the situation remains, ‘all system go’

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 last week to 190,000, while the 4 week moving average increased 1,750 to 19...
Wednesday, March 1, 2023

February manufacturing and January construction continue negative, while auto sales improve

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   - by New Deal democrat We started out yet another month of data with bad news in two leading sectors. The ISM manufacturing index has bee...
Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Housing prices continue to come down - like a feather

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   - by New Deal democrat As I’ve repeated many times in the past 10 years, in housing prices follow sales with a lag. Housing permits and ...
Monday, February 27, 2023

Durable goods orders: more deceleration, still no recession

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 - by New Deal democrat I normally don’t pay too much attention to durable goods orders. That’s because they are very noisy. They don’t alwa...
Saturday, February 25, 2023

Weekly Indicators for February 20 - 24 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While several of the important coincident indicators continue t...
Friday, February 24, 2023

New home sales: a bright spot in the housing indicators

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 - by New Deal democrat New home sales are very noisy, and are heavily revised, which is why I pay more attention to single family housing p...

Strong upward revisions push real personal income to new highs, put 2 important coincident indicators firmly in expansion territory

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   - by New Deal democrat Almost all of the news in this morning’s release for personal income and spending for January was positive. Nomina...