Friday, February 10, 2023

Updating some important coincident indicators

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 - by New Deal democrat We returned to no more significant monthly data today. So here are some important coincident indicators I’ve been pa...
Thursday, February 9, 2023

As Holiday seasonality disappears, initial jobless claims turn higher YoY

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 last week to 196,000. The four week moving average declined -7,500 to 189,250. ...
Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Credit conditions in Q4 were recessionary

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    - by New Deal democrat While we are still in our lull concerning monthly data, on Monday there was a significant update of one long lead...
Tuesday, February 7, 2023

Scenes from the blockbuster January jobs report 2: revisions do not resolve discrepancies in the reports

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   - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that the blockbuster January jobs report was essentially the result of two factors: (1) a very ...
Monday, February 6, 2023

Scenes from the blockbuster jobs report 1: in January, nobody* got laid off!

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  (*hyperbole)  - by New Deal democrat There’s no important new economic data until Thursday this week. Meanwhile, there was lots to digest ...
Saturday, February 4, 2023

Weekly Indicators for January 30 - February 3 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . While yesterday’s blockbuster jobs report dominated the month...
Friday, February 3, 2023

January jobs report: like a sports car at maximum acceleration

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     - by New Deal democrat My focus on this report was on whether manufacturing and construction jobs turned negative or not, and whether ...
Thursday, February 2, 2023

JOLTS and jobless claims: the labor market remains a strong positive

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   - by New Deal democrat The message from the JOLTS report for December yesterday and jobless claims for last week today is that the labor ...
Wednesday, February 1, 2023

January manufacturing at recessionary levels; December construction spending also declines

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   - by New Deal democrat The first data for the month of January is in, and with one exception, it is pretty bad. The ISM manufacturing ind...
Tuesday, January 31, 2023

House price indexes for November: up like a rocket, down like a feather

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   - by New Deal democrat As I’ve repeated many times in the past 10 years, in housing prices follow sales with a lag. Housing permits peake...
Monday, January 30, 2023

What to watch most for in this Friday’s jobs report

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    - by New Deal democrat After a two week drought, this week a plethora of economic stats get reported. Most importantly for my purposes t...
Saturday, January 28, 2023

Weekly Indicators for January 23 - 27 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat “Slowly I turn. Step by step . . .” That old Vaudeville bit comes to mind in watching the coincident indicators cr...
Friday, January 27, 2023

Good news and bad news on personal income and spending

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   - by New Deal democrat December personal income and spending had some material for both optimists and pessimists. Let’s look at the good ...
Thursday, January 26, 2023

Q4 2022 GDP positive, but both long leading components continue negative

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    - by New Deal democrat Here’s my last note for this morning. Real Q4 GDP came in at +0.7%, or +2.8% annualized. While this is lower than...