Saturday, February 4, 2023

Weekly Indicators for January 30 - February 3 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . While yesterday’s blockbuster jobs report dominated the month...
Friday, February 3, 2023

January jobs report: like a sports car at maximum acceleration

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     - by New Deal democrat My focus on this report was on whether manufacturing and construction jobs turned negative or not, and whether ...
Thursday, February 2, 2023

JOLTS and jobless claims: the labor market remains a strong positive

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   - by New Deal democrat The message from the JOLTS report for December yesterday and jobless claims for last week today is that the labor ...
Wednesday, February 1, 2023

January manufacturing at recessionary levels; December construction spending also declines

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   - by New Deal democrat The first data for the month of January is in, and with one exception, it is pretty bad. The ISM manufacturing ind...
Tuesday, January 31, 2023

House price indexes for November: up like a rocket, down like a feather

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   - by New Deal democrat As I’ve repeated many times in the past 10 years, in housing prices follow sales with a lag. Housing permits peake...
Monday, January 30, 2023

What to watch most for in this Friday’s jobs report

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    - by New Deal democrat After a two week drought, this week a plethora of economic stats get reported. Most importantly for my purposes t...
Saturday, January 28, 2023

Weekly Indicators for January 23 - 27 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat “Slowly I turn. Step by step . . .” That old Vaudeville bit comes to mind in watching the coincident indicators cr...
Friday, January 27, 2023

Good news and bad news on personal income and spending

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   - by New Deal democrat December personal income and spending had some material for both optimists and pessimists. Let’s look at the good ...
Thursday, January 26, 2023

Q4 2022 GDP positive, but both long leading components continue negative

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    - by New Deal democrat Here’s my last note for this morning. Real Q4 GDP came in at +0.7%, or +2.8% annualized. While this is lower than...

Durable goods orders come in mixed; leaving only employment indicators as short term positives for the economy

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   - by New Deal democrat Manufacturers’ durable goods orders, and in particular “core” orders, which exclude defense and transportation (a/...

Jobless claims continue recent strong streak

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   - by New Deal democrat Programming note: I’ll put up separate posts on durable goods orders, real manufacturing and trade sales, and the ...
Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Three most quickly reported measures of coincident indicators - all of which are close to turning negative

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  - by New Deal democrat While we await tomorrow morning’s deluge of Almost Every Economic Series Imaginable, I have posted over at Seeking ...
Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Index of leading indicators says recession almost certain; so what of the coincident indicators?

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  - by New Deal democrat This week is one of those where almost all of the important data is crammed into one day - in this case, Thursday, ...
Monday, January 23, 2023

How “FHFA-CPI” using house prices rather than OER shows a sharp deceleration in inflation

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    - by New Deal democrat Paul Krugman made another foray into the “inflation is mostly gone” genre over the weekend with a thread on Mast...
Sunday, January 22, 2023

Weekly Indicators for January 16 - 20 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat I forgot to post this yesterday, so here you go today . . .  My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. ...
Friday, January 20, 2023

Existing home sales and prices decline; plus, a closer look at multi-unit housing construction

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   - by New Deal democrat  I will keep my comments on December existing home sales and prices brief. That’s because, even though they make ...
Thursday, January 19, 2023

The actual Big News in this morning’s housing report was - positive

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   - by New Deal democrat For the second month in a row, the biggest news in the housing report was not in the headlines.  Most of what you ...