Friday, January 6, 2023

December jobs report: good headlines, but deceleration continues

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    - by New Deal democrat If the long leading indicators all last year, and the majority of the short leading indicators from the past few...
Thursday, January 5, 2023

New jobless claims end 2022 on a positive note; preview of tomorrow’s jobs report

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims started off the year - or ended last year if you are technical about it - on a positive note, decli...
Wednesday, January 4, 2023

November JOLTS report consistent with a continued “hot” labor market

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  - by New Deal democrat   The JOLTS report for November showed both continuing decelerating trends in some series, but overall a picture of...

December manufacturing, new orders both decline further, to readings even more on the cusp of recession

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 - by New Deal democrat I described last month’s ISM manufacturing reading as being one “on the cusp of recession.” Well, this month’s readi...
Tuesday, January 3, 2023

2023 data begins with another lesson: the remedy for high prices is - high prices

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   - by New Deal democrat And so, another year begins. And kicks off with a look at the leading housing sector. And furthermore, there is e...
Saturday, December 31, 2022

Weekly Indicators for December 26 - 30 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The volatile coincident consumer numbers bounced higher this wee...
Friday, December 30, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for year end 2022: becoming endemic, and still an important threat to seniors

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   - by New Deal democrat As we close out 2022, let’s look back at the overall picture for COVID. The best historical measure of actual infe...
Thursday, December 29, 2022

Initial claims close out the year still positive

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning we got the final economic news of the year, as initial claims for the week rose 9,000 to 225,000. The...
Wednesday, December 28, 2022

Three graphs which defined the economy in 2022; a look back at my forecasts

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   - by New Deal democrat In the summer of 2021, looking at the long leading indicators , I wrote : “ while the long leading indicators con...
Tuesday, December 27, 2022

House price indexes decline, unchanged in October; further evidence of real declines since summer

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    - by New Deal democrat The Case Shiller national house price index declined another -0.3% in November, and is now up 9.2% YoY, compared ...
Saturday, December 24, 2022

Weekly Indicators for December 19 - 23 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Coincident indicators continue to ever so microscopically worsen...
Friday, December 23, 2022

New home sales for November: at last, a bright spot! (relatively speaking)

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   - by New Deal democrat New home sales are very volatile, and heavily revised. But they frequently are the first housing metrics to turn. ...

Real personal income and spending hold up (thank you, lower gas prices!) but still consistent with onset of recession

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s report on personal income and spending for November shows why I pay more attention to real retail s...

Durable goods orders appear to have peaked

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 [Note: I’ll post about personal income and spending, as well as new home sales, later.]  - by New Deal democrat I normally don’t pay much a...
Thursday, December 22, 2022

Initial claims continue in range; why they will give us a lead on when the Sahm rule for recessions may be triggered

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims ticked up 2,000 last week to 216,000. The 4 week moving average declined 6,250 to 221,750. Continue...