Saturday, December 24, 2022

Weekly Indicators for December 19 - 23 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Coincident indicators continue to ever so microscopically worsen...
Friday, December 23, 2022

New home sales for November: at last, a bright spot! (relatively speaking)

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   - by New Deal democrat New home sales are very volatile, and heavily revised. But they frequently are the first housing metrics to turn. ...

Real personal income and spending hold up (thank you, lower gas prices!) but still consistent with onset of recession

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s report on personal income and spending for November shows why I pay more attention to real retail s...

Durable goods orders appear to have peaked

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 [Note: I’ll post about personal income and spending, as well as new home sales, later.]  - by New Deal democrat I normally don’t pay much a...
Thursday, December 22, 2022

Initial claims continue in range; why they will give us a lead on when the Sahm rule for recessions may be triggered

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims ticked up 2,000 last week to 216,000. The 4 week moving average declined 6,250 to 221,750. Continue...
Wednesday, December 21, 2022

November existing home sales: prices have unequivocally turned down

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    - by New Deal democrat Existing home sales do not have much actual economic impact, since the primary economic activity generated by hou...
Tuesday, December 20, 2022

November housing permits and starts: the biggest news is not in the headlines

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   - by New Deal democrat The report on housing construction for November was very much a tale of two very different trends - and the most ...
Monday, December 19, 2022

Job growth beginning in Q2 looks to be substantially revised downward

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   - by New Deal democrat Last week the Philadelphia Fed published a working paper suggesting that in the second quarter of this year only...
Saturday, December 17, 2022

Weekly Indicators for December 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The coincident indicators, especially employment, are hanging ...
Friday, December 16, 2022

The status of the coincident indicators

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 - by New Deal democrat In addition to real GDP, which is only updated quarterly and with a lag, the NBER has indicated that it relies upon ...
Thursday, December 15, 2022

November real retail sales turn down, return to negative YoY

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   - by New Deal democrat Real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators for both the current economy and the jobs situation 3 to 6 mo...

November Industrial production: has the King of Coincident Indicators peaked?

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 - by New Deal democrat Industrial production declined -0.2% in November, and manufacturing production declined -0.6%, essentially returning...

Jobless claims: still weakly positive

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  - by New Deal democrat My focus on jobless claims has shifted to when and whether they will turn negative, flashing a short leading warnin...
Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Real average and aggregate non-managerial wages for November

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   - by New Deal democrat With November’s consumer inflation report in the books, let’s update two of my favorite measures of how the workin...
Tuesday, December 13, 2022

November CPI: Thank you, gas prices! No thank you, owners’ equivalent rent

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   - by New Deal democrat Just like producer prices as reported last Friday, consumer prices for November confirm the inflection point of la...
Monday, December 12, 2022

A brief overview of the current state of the economy

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   - by New Deal democrat This week we get the final most important data of 2022, with consumer prices tomorrow and industrial production an...
Sunday, December 11, 2022

Weekly Indicators for December 5 - 9 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The most noteworthy trend over the past several months has been...
Friday, December 9, 2022

November producer prices: YoY measures mask recent sharp deceleration to mainly tolerable levels

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   - by New Deal democrat Consumer prices for November won’t be reported until next Tuesday, but this morning we got the upstream producer p...