Friday, December 16, 2022

The status of the coincident indicators

›
 - by New Deal democrat In addition to real GDP, which is only updated quarterly and with a lag, the NBER has indicated that it relies upon ...
Thursday, December 15, 2022

November real retail sales turn down, return to negative YoY

›
   - by New Deal democrat Real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators for both the current economy and the jobs situation 3 to 6 mo...

November Industrial production: has the King of Coincident Indicators peaked?

›
 - by New Deal democrat Industrial production declined -0.2% in November, and manufacturing production declined -0.6%, essentially returning...

Jobless claims: still weakly positive

›
  - by New Deal democrat My focus on jobless claims has shifted to when and whether they will turn negative, flashing a short leading warnin...
Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Real average and aggregate non-managerial wages for November

›
   - by New Deal democrat With November’s consumer inflation report in the books, let’s update two of my favorite measures of how the workin...
Tuesday, December 13, 2022

November CPI: Thank you, gas prices! No thank you, owners’ equivalent rent

›
   - by New Deal democrat Just like producer prices as reported last Friday, consumer prices for November confirm the inflection point of la...
Monday, December 12, 2022

A brief overview of the current state of the economy

›
   - by New Deal democrat This week we get the final most important data of 2022, with consumer prices tomorrow and industrial production an...
Sunday, December 11, 2022

Weekly Indicators for December 5 - 9 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The most noteworthy trend over the past several months has been...
Friday, December 9, 2022

November producer prices: YoY measures mask recent sharp deceleration to mainly tolerable levels

›
   - by New Deal democrat Consumer prices for November won’t be reported until next Tuesday, but this morning we got the upstream producer p...
Thursday, December 8, 2022

Jobless claims: troublesome trend continues, but no yellow flag yet

›
   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims is one of the few remaining positive short leading indicators. But as I’ve noted for the pa...
Wednesday, December 7, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for December 7: the first winter wave of endemicity begins

›
    - by New Deal democrat COVID is well on its way to becoming endemic, with a significant background level similar to what we have experie...
Tuesday, December 6, 2022

Scenes from the November employment report: the short leading jobs indicators

›
   - by New Deal democrat Every month as part of my post on the jobs report, I run through the changes in those measures which are short lea...
Monday, December 5, 2022

New factory orders remain an economic bright spot

›
   - by New Deal democrat New factory orders for October were reported this morning. I normally don’t write about them, because they are ver...
Saturday, December 3, 2022

Weekly Indicators for November 28 - December 2 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . First the long leading indicators turned. Then the short leadin...
Friday, December 2, 2022

November jobs report: decidedly mixed signals, most consistent with a still-growing but decidedly weakening economy

›
   - by New Deal democrat  Since early this year I have expected employment to follow the halt in consumption growth, decelerating over tim...
Thursday, December 1, 2022

November manufacturing and October construction both decline, the former almost at recessionary levels

›
   - by New Deal democrat  As usual, we begin the new month’s data with the ISM manufacturing index.  This index  has a very long and relia...