Friday, December 9, 2022

November producer prices: YoY measures mask recent sharp deceleration to mainly tolerable levels

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   - by New Deal democrat Consumer prices for November won’t be reported until next Tuesday, but this morning we got the upstream producer p...
Thursday, December 8, 2022

Jobless claims: troublesome trend continues, but no yellow flag yet

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims is one of the few remaining positive short leading indicators. But as I’ve noted for the pa...
Wednesday, December 7, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for December 7: the first winter wave of endemicity begins

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    - by New Deal democrat COVID is well on its way to becoming endemic, with a significant background level similar to what we have experie...
Tuesday, December 6, 2022

Scenes from the November employment report: the short leading jobs indicators

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   - by New Deal democrat Every month as part of my post on the jobs report, I run through the changes in those measures which are short lea...
Monday, December 5, 2022

New factory orders remain an economic bright spot

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   - by New Deal democrat New factory orders for October were reported this morning. I normally don’t write about them, because they are ver...
Saturday, December 3, 2022

Weekly Indicators for November 28 - December 2 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . First the long leading indicators turned. Then the short leadin...
Friday, December 2, 2022

November jobs report: decidedly mixed signals, most consistent with a still-growing but decidedly weakening economy

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   - by New Deal democrat  Since early this year I have expected employment to follow the halt in consumption growth, decelerating over tim...
Thursday, December 1, 2022

November manufacturing and October construction both decline, the former almost at recessionary levels

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   - by New Deal democrat  As usual, we begin the new month’s data with the ISM manufacturing index.  This index  has a very long and relia...

Strong personal income and spending contrast with near record low in saving

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   - by New Deal democrat Like retail sales earlier in November, personal income and spending both rose smartly, as shown in the below grap...

Initial jobless claims get closer to signaling recession

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   - by New Deal democrat Today is one of those data-palooza days, so I’ll put up separate posts on personal income and spending, and the IS...
Wednesday, November 30, 2022

October JOLTS report shows continued deceleration in jobs market, with continuing gap in job openings filled

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    - by New Deal democrat For the past year, I have likened the jobs market to a game of reverse musical chairs, where there are more chair...
Tuesday, November 29, 2022

House price indexes continue to show the top is in

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   - by New Deal democrat The FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes were reported this morning, with both continuing to show that the pe...
Monday, November 28, 2022

New home sales adjusted for cancellations: still signs that a bottoming process might be taking place

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   - by New Deal democrat I had a correspondent question me about whether new home sales might actually be in the process of bottoming, due...
Friday, November 25, 2022

Have new home sales made a bottom?

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    - by New Deal democrat Hopefully you are recovering from your turkey coma today. Here’s a little late commentary on Wednesday’s new home...