Saturday, December 3, 2022

Weekly Indicators for November 28 - December 2 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . First the long leading indicators turned. Then the short leadin...
Friday, December 2, 2022

November jobs report: decidedly mixed signals, most consistent with a still-growing but decidedly weakening economy

›
   - by New Deal democrat  Since early this year I have expected employment to follow the halt in consumption growth, decelerating over tim...
Thursday, December 1, 2022

November manufacturing and October construction both decline, the former almost at recessionary levels

›
   - by New Deal democrat  As usual, we begin the new month’s data with the ISM manufacturing index.  This index  has a very long and relia...

Strong personal income and spending contrast with near record low in saving

›
   - by New Deal democrat Like retail sales earlier in November, personal income and spending both rose smartly, as shown in the below grap...

Initial jobless claims get closer to signaling recession

›
   - by New Deal democrat Today is one of those data-palooza days, so I’ll put up separate posts on personal income and spending, and the IS...
Wednesday, November 30, 2022

October JOLTS report shows continued deceleration in jobs market, with continuing gap in job openings filled

›
    - by New Deal democrat For the past year, I have likened the jobs market to a game of reverse musical chairs, where there are more chair...
Tuesday, November 29, 2022

House price indexes continue to show the top is in

›
   - by New Deal democrat The FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes were reported this morning, with both continuing to show that the pe...
Monday, November 28, 2022

New home sales adjusted for cancellations: still signs that a bottoming process might be taking place

›
   - by New Deal democrat I had a correspondent question me about whether new home sales might actually be in the process of bottoming, due...
Friday, November 25, 2022

Have new home sales made a bottom?

›
    - by New Deal democrat Hopefully you are recovering from your turkey coma today. Here’s a little late commentary on Wednesday’s new home...
Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Jobless claims have a poor week, rising to multi-month highs

›
   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims for jobless benefits rose 17,000 this week to 240,000, a 3 month high. The 4 week average also rose...
Tuesday, November 22, 2022

More on deteriorating tax withholding receipts and jobs reports

›
   - by New Deal democrat I have a new post up at Seeking Alpha , in which I lay out all of the short leading indicators, and conclude that ...
Monday, November 21, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for Thanksgiving week 2022

›
   - by New Deal democrat  As we start Thanksgiving week, let’s take a look at the current state of COVID. The Alphabet Soup of variants (m...
Saturday, November 19, 2022

Weekly Indicators for November 14 - 18 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . It had to happen sooner or later. Earlier this year, based on t...
Friday, November 18, 2022

Existing home sales decline to recessionary levels; prices have clearly turned down; low inventory still a problem

›
    - by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this morning, my primary interest in existing home sales at this point is prices. [Note: graph...

Core inflation using house prices rather than imputed rents

›
   - by New Deal democrat Later this morning existing home sales will be reported for October, which will mainly be of interest to me only ...
Thursday, November 17, 2022

Housing permits and starts continue to fall, but housing under construction continues to (slowly) rise

›
   - by New Deal democrat  The monthly numbers for housing permits, starts, and single family permits all declined this month. Permits (red...