Friday, November 25, 2022

Have new home sales made a bottom?

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    - by New Deal democrat Hopefully you are recovering from your turkey coma today. Here’s a little late commentary on Wednesday’s new home...
Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Jobless claims have a poor week, rising to multi-month highs

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims for jobless benefits rose 17,000 this week to 240,000, a 3 month high. The 4 week average also rose...
Tuesday, November 22, 2022

More on deteriorating tax withholding receipts and jobs reports

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   - by New Deal democrat I have a new post up at Seeking Alpha , in which I lay out all of the short leading indicators, and conclude that ...
Monday, November 21, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for Thanksgiving week 2022

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   - by New Deal democrat  As we start Thanksgiving week, let’s take a look at the current state of COVID. The Alphabet Soup of variants (m...
Saturday, November 19, 2022

Weekly Indicators for November 14 - 18 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . It had to happen sooner or later. Earlier this year, based on t...
Friday, November 18, 2022

Existing home sales decline to recessionary levels; prices have clearly turned down; low inventory still a problem

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    - by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this morning, my primary interest in existing home sales at this point is prices. [Note: graph...

Core inflation using house prices rather than imputed rents

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   - by New Deal democrat Later this morning existing home sales will be reported for October, which will mainly be of interest to me only ...
Thursday, November 17, 2022

Housing permits and starts continue to fall, but housing under construction continues to (slowly) rise

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   - by New Deal democrat  The monthly numbers for housing permits, starts, and single family permits all declined this month. Permits (red...

Jobless claims: evidence the jobs market is cooling slightly from white hot to red hot

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -6,000 this week to 222,000. The 4 week average rose 2,000 to 221,000. More intere...
Wednesday, November 16, 2022

October industrial production: consistent with a very slow expansion

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    - by New Deal democrat I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because more often than any other metric it coinc...

October retail sales: consumers: “We’re not dead yet!”

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   - by New Deal democrat Retail sales, my favorite consumer indicator, was reported this morning for October. And it was a good number, up ...
Tuesday, November 15, 2022

October producer prices: more evidence that supply chain pressures have eased

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    - by New Deal democrat Let me start this discussion of October’s producer price index by pointing to the NY Fed’s “Global Supply Chain P...
Monday, November 14, 2022

Some foreboding signs and portents from consumption and employment data

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   - by New Deal democrat I have a special post up at Seeking Alpha,  looking at some very troubling signs from several of the high frequen...
Saturday, November 12, 2022

Weekly Indicators for November 7 - 11 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Although a few indicators are holding up, in the past month th...
Friday, November 11, 2022

Real average hourly wages and real aggregate payrolls for October

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   - by New Deal democrat With yesterday’s report on October consumer prices, we can up two of my favorite measures of how the working/middl...
Thursday, November 10, 2022

October CPI report: total inflation increasing at 3.5% annual rate, core inflation minus shelter increasing at 2.8% annual rate in the past 4 months

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   - by New Deal democrat For a full year now  I’ve been hammering the fact that the official CPI measure of housing inflation, “owners’ eq...

Jobless claims: still holding steady

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    - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose slightly, by 7,000, from one week ago to 225,000. The 4 week average declined -250 to...