Saturday, November 19, 2022

Weekly Indicators for November 14 - 18 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . It had to happen sooner or later. Earlier this year, based on t...
Friday, November 18, 2022

Existing home sales decline to recessionary levels; prices have clearly turned down; low inventory still a problem

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    - by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this morning, my primary interest in existing home sales at this point is prices. [Note: graph...

Core inflation using house prices rather than imputed rents

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   - by New Deal democrat Later this morning existing home sales will be reported for October, which will mainly be of interest to me only ...
Thursday, November 17, 2022

Housing permits and starts continue to fall, but housing under construction continues to (slowly) rise

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   - by New Deal democrat  The monthly numbers for housing permits, starts, and single family permits all declined this month. Permits (red...

Jobless claims: evidence the jobs market is cooling slightly from white hot to red hot

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -6,000 this week to 222,000. The 4 week average rose 2,000 to 221,000. More intere...
Wednesday, November 16, 2022

October industrial production: consistent with a very slow expansion

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    - by New Deal democrat I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because more often than any other metric it coinc...

October retail sales: consumers: “We’re not dead yet!”

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   - by New Deal democrat Retail sales, my favorite consumer indicator, was reported this morning for October. And it was a good number, up ...
Tuesday, November 15, 2022

October producer prices: more evidence that supply chain pressures have eased

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    - by New Deal democrat Let me start this discussion of October’s producer price index by pointing to the NY Fed’s “Global Supply Chain P...
Monday, November 14, 2022

Some foreboding signs and portents from consumption and employment data

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   - by New Deal democrat I have a special post up at Seeking Alpha,  looking at some very troubling signs from several of the high frequen...
Saturday, November 12, 2022

Weekly Indicators for November 7 - 11 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Although a few indicators are holding up, in the past month th...
Friday, November 11, 2022

Real average hourly wages and real aggregate payrolls for October

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   - by New Deal democrat With yesterday’s report on October consumer prices, we can up two of my favorite measures of how the working/middl...
Thursday, November 10, 2022

October CPI report: total inflation increasing at 3.5% annual rate, core inflation minus shelter increasing at 2.8% annual rate in the past 4 months

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   - by New Deal democrat For a full year now  I’ve been hammering the fact that the official CPI measure of housing inflation, “owners’ eq...

Jobless claims: still holding steady

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    - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose slightly, by 7,000, from one week ago to 225,000. The 4 week average declined -250 to...
Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Some Big Picture comments on the 2022 midterm elections

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    - by New Deal democrat No economic news today while we await tomorrow’s big inflation report (Hint: shelter inflation is going to contin...
Tuesday, November 8, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for November 8: the new alphabet soup of variants fails to generate a new wave (so far)

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   - by New Deal democrat Biobot has not updated since late last week, showing COVID particles at or near 6 month lows both nationwide: and...
Monday, November 7, 2022

Scenes from the October jobs report: deceleration and deterioration, but no downturn signaled

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   - by New Deal democrat No economic news of note today or tomorrow, except the (very late) Q3 Senior Loan Officers Report this afternoon,...