Saturday, November 5, 2022

Weekly Indicators for October 31 - November 4 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Data doesn’t move relentlessly in one direction, and this week ...
Friday, November 4, 2022

October jobs report: late cycle deceleration and deterioration

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    - by New Deal democrat With the sharp increases in interest rates, and the complete stalling of real consumer spending measured YoY, sin...
Thursday, November 3, 2022

The Fed appears determined to cause a Volcker-like recession

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   - by New Deal democrat Yesterday the Fed raised rates another 0.75%. In the past 8 months, the Fed has raised rates a total of 3.75%. Thi...

Jobless claims: steady as she goes

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   - by New Deal democrat [ Special programming note: yesterday’s Fed action, and more important the statements made afterward, merit specia...
Wednesday, November 2, 2022

September JOLTS report: despite the increase in openings, the decelerating trend in the game of reverse musical chairs remains intact

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   - by New Deal democrat In 2021 and earlier this year, the jobs market was typified by a game of reverse musical chairs in which there wer...
Tuesday, November 1, 2022

Manufacturing, construction, and job openings all show an economy under stress

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, we begin another month with important manufacturing and construction data. Additionally, the JOLTS repor...
Monday, October 31, 2022

While I was away . . . Personal income and spending for September

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   - by New Deal democrat Real personal spending increased +0.3% in September, while real income increased less than 0.1%, rounding to unch...
Saturday, October 29, 2022

Weekly Indicators for October 24 - 28 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators Post is up at Seeking Alpha. Slowly even more indicators are deteriorating in several timefra...
Thursday, October 27, 2022

Q3 GDP: good news for now, bad news for the future

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   - by New Deal democrat I have to keep this note brief, since I am on the road. As you presumably already know, real GDP was positive for ...
Wednesday, October 26, 2022

The Treasury yield curve has now almost totally inverted

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   - by New Deal democrat One of the few leading indicators not flashing red for recession has been the short end of the Treasury yield curv...
Tuesday, October 25, 2022

The tide has now turned as to house prices

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   - by New Deal democrat Last month I wrote that the FHFA showed evidence that house prices had peaked, and that “ since the FHFA has a ten...
Monday, October 24, 2022

When will housing construction turn down? A fuller consideration

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   - by New Deal democrat No important economic news today. Also I am traveling this week, so there might be some light posting, as in, I mi...