Saturday, October 29, 2022

Weekly Indicators for October 24 - 28 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators Post is up at Seeking Alpha. Slowly even more indicators are deteriorating in several timefra...
Thursday, October 27, 2022

Q3 GDP: good news for now, bad news for the future

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   - by New Deal democrat I have to keep this note brief, since I am on the road. As you presumably already know, real GDP was positive for ...
Wednesday, October 26, 2022

The Treasury yield curve has now almost totally inverted

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   - by New Deal democrat One of the few leading indicators not flashing red for recession has been the short end of the Treasury yield curv...
Tuesday, October 25, 2022

The tide has now turned as to house prices

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   - by New Deal democrat Last month I wrote that the FHFA showed evidence that house prices had peaked, and that “ since the FHFA has a ten...
Monday, October 24, 2022

When will housing construction turn down? A fuller consideration

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   - by New Deal democrat No important economic news today. Also I am traveling this week, so there might be some light posting, as in, I mi...
Saturday, October 22, 2022

Weekly Indicators for October 17 - 21 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . If you thought the long leading indicators couldn’t get any wor...
Friday, October 21, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for October 21: the autumn lull continues, despite new subvariants

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   - by New Deal democrat No economic data today, so let’s update the status of COVID-19. We are currently in a relative lull, with confirme...
Thursday, October 20, 2022

September existing home sales and prices decline

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   - by New Deal democrat With the exception of their big impact on prices, I do not particularly pay attention to existing home sales. Thei...

Jobless claims flat for the moment

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   - by New Deal democrat There’s no big news in the jobless claims release this week. Initial claims fell -12,000 to 214,000, but the 4 wee...
Wednesday, October 19, 2022

Housing on track for an early 2023 recession, but with a major caveat

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   - by New Deal democrat  I don’t think anybody was expecting a good housing construction report this month, and those non-expectations we...
Tuesday, October 18, 2022

September industrial production comes in very strong

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    - by New Deal democrat September’s industrial production report puts the final nail in the coffin in the notion that the US is already i...
Monday, October 17, 2022

The “Consumer nowcast” recession warning is triggered, as real wages decline, real aggregate payrolls near stall, plus record mortgage payments

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   - by New Deal democrat No economic news today. So, now that we have the September inflation read, let’s take a look at a couple of import...
Saturday, October 15, 2022

Weekly Indicators for October 10 - 14 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Just about everything looks awful. And one bright spot, consume...
Friday, October 14, 2022

September real retail sales lay another egg

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   - by New Deal democrat One of my favorite indicators, retail sales, was reported for September this morning, and it came in unchanged. Wh...
Thursday, October 13, 2022

September consumer inflation: primarily a function of the fictitious “owners’ equivalent rent” plus new cars

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   - by New Deal democrat  Since last November I’ve been hammering the fact that the official CPI measure of housing inflation, “owners’ e...