Friday, September 30, 2022

August personal income and spending: major downward revisions overwhelm modestly positive monthly grains

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s personal income and spending report for August was positive month over month both in nominal and re...
Thursday, September 29, 2022

The positive trend in jobless claims continues

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    - by New Deal democrat For still another week, initial jobless claims continued their recent downtrend. Initial claims declined -16,000 ...
Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Interest rates, the yield curve, and the Fed chasing a Phantom (lagging) Menace

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   - by New Deal democrat There’s a lot going on with interest rates in the past few days. Mortgage rates have increased above 7%: This is t...
Tuesday, September 27, 2022

House price indexes: more evidence of a summer peak

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   - by New Deal democrat The Case Shiller and FHFA house price indexes were updated through July (technically, the average of May through ...
Monday, September 26, 2022

Gas and oil price update: good news and bad news

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   -  by New Deal democrat We’ll get some important house price information tomorrow, but there is no economic news of significance today, s...
Saturday, September 24, 2022

Weekly Indicators for September 19 - 23 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators column is up at Seeking Alpha. For the third week in a row, interest rates increased, and gas...
Friday, September 23, 2022

Focusing on the short end of the yield curve

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   - by New Deal democrat   When most analysts talk about yield curve inversions, they typically mean a measure of the 10 year bond vs. a s...
Thursday, September 22, 2022

Jobless claims: the positive trend continues

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   - by New Deal democrat For yet another week, initial jobless claims continued their reversal from had been in an almost relentless uptren...
Wednesday, September 21, 2022

August existing home sales: confirmation that house prices have peaked

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    - by New Deal democrat Existing home sale by themselves are not that important economically, since there is a mere transfer in ownership...
Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Housing: permits and average starts decline, while construction remains at peak

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   - by New Deal democrat The data on housing construction this month was mixed. While starts rose, their 3 month average, at 1.511 million ...
Monday, September 19, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for September 19: no, the pandemic is *not* over

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   - by New Deal democrat  Contrary to the statement by President Biden last night, the coronavirus pandemic is *not* over. First, here’s t...

The Ukraine war spike in energy prices has completely unwound

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   - by New Deal democrat I plan on putting up a Coronavirus update later today, because there have been a few significant developments (No,...
Saturday, September 17, 2022

Weekly Indicators for September 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Gas prices have continued to decline, with almost the entire U...
Friday, September 16, 2022

Real aggregate payrolls and recessions

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   - by New Deal democrat One of my favorite indicators for the overall economic health of the American working and middle classes is real a...