Friday, August 12, 2022

The long leading outlook through mid year 2023 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat I posted this last week at Seeking Alpha, and seeing as there is no big economic news today, this might be a good...
Thursday, August 11, 2022

Jobless claims: once again, a relentless uptrend

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    - by New Deal democrat I feel like a broken record at this point, as every week the trend seems more and more relentless. Initial jobles...
Wednesday, August 10, 2022

July consumer inflation: a tale of two disparate trends

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 - by New Deal democrat Consumer prices were unchanged in July, as two very disparate trends canceled out one another. YoY prices increased ...
Tuesday, August 9, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for August 9: BA.5 dominant, with a slow waning; a model for endemicity

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   - by New Deal democrat  BIobot’s most recent update, through last week, shows a decline of 15% of COVID in wastewater, consistent with ...
Monday, August 8, 2022

Previewing July CPI: good news and bad news about gas, housing, and vehicle prices

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   - by New Deal democrat While July’s consumer inflation is likely to be less intense than in recent months, I don’t see it coming back do...
Saturday, August 6, 2022

Weekly Indicators for August 1 - 5 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Several important metrics have reversed course in the past month...
Friday, August 5, 2022

July jobs report: in which an absolute positive blowout make me happily wrong; all pandemic job losses now recovered

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   -  by New Deal democrat  As I wrote earlier this week, the short leading indicators for both jobs (real retail sales) and the unemployme...
Thursday, August 4, 2022

Jobless claims continue their relentless climb

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 6,000 to 260,000 last week. More importantly, the 4 week average, which has been risin...
Wednesday, August 3, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for August 3: is this what endemicity looks like?

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   - by New Deal democrat Confirmed cases nationwide (dotted line below) declined to 121,700, still within their recent 120-130,000 range. D...
Tuesday, August 2, 2022

JOLTS report for June amplifies likelihood of substantial downturn in job growth, upturn in unemployment

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  - by New Deal democrat Before we get to the JOLTS report for June, which was released this morning, I wanted to make a point about the ove...
Monday, August 1, 2022

July manufacturing and June construction spending: leading components of both are negative

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, the new month’s first data is for manufacturing and construction. Here’s a look at each. The ISM manufac...
Saturday, July 30, 2022

Weekly Indicators for July 25 - 29 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There have been some interesting counter-trend movements in the...
Friday, July 29, 2022

Real income continued to fall in June, while consumers dug deeper to spend

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    - by New Deal democrat In June personal income rose 0.6% nominally, and nominal spending rose 1.1%. T he personal consumption deflator, ...
Thursday, July 28, 2022

Long leading indicators embedded in Q2 GDP suggest a recession is near at hand

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   - by New Deal democrat Where does the economy go from here?  If it’s not in recession, it isn’t doing much better.  There are two compon...

Increasing trend in initial claims continues; on track to signal recession in November

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    - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined 5,000 to 256,000 last week. But hold your celebrations, because that was because ...

First comments on Q2 GDP: no, we’re not in a recession (yet)

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    - by New Deal democrat When the negative print on Q1 GDP first came out three months ago, I wrote: “ yes, it was a negative GDP print. N...