Friday, July 22, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for July 22: the BA.4&5 wavette has (probably) peaked

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   - by New Deal democrat No economic news today, so let’s update the COVID situation. As of yesterday, nationwide (dotted line below) case...
Thursday, July 21, 2022

Increasing trend in jobless claims continues; on track to give recession warning in November

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose another 7,000 to 251,000 last week, an 8 month high. The 4 week average rose 4,500 to ...
Wednesday, July 20, 2022

Existing home sales now down 25% from peak; but price increases keep steamrolling on

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   - by New Deal democrat Although existing home sales are less economically important than new home sales, what has been happening with the...
Tuesday, July 19, 2022

Sharp downturn in June housing starts confirms earlier negative signals from permits, sales, and mortgage applications

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    - by New Deal democrat For the last few months, I have highlighted the record number of housing units that had permits, but had not yet ...
Monday, July 18, 2022

A note on inflation and whether the Fed should continue to raise rates - and whether it is “behind the curve”

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   - by New Deal democrat No important economic releases today, and almost no reporting by States as to COVID counts over the weekend, so le...
Saturday, July 16, 2022

Weekly Indicators for July 11 - 15 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. We are at the point where I suspect that after the Q2 quarterly ...
Friday, July 15, 2022

June industrial production: second sharp monthly decline in manufacturng

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   - by New Deal democrat Industrial production declined -0.2% in June, and May was revised downward to unchanged. Even worse, manufacturin...

Real retail sales decline again slightly

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   - by New Deal democrat Nominal retail sales for the month of June rose 1.0%, and May was revised up by 0.2% from -0.3% to -0.1%. But sin...
Thursday, July 14, 2022

Jobless claims continue to trend higher, but no recession signal yet

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    - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 244,000 last week, a 7.5 month high. The 4 week average rose 3,250 to 235,75...
Wednesday, July 13, 2022

June CPI report: bad, bad, bad, bad, bad

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   - by New Deal democrat In case for some reason you haven’t already heard, the inflation news for June was uniformly bad. Here is some of ...
Tuesday, July 12, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for July 11: BA.4&5 now over 80% of cases without creating a new wave, as COVID heads toward endemicity

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   - by New Deal democrat The CDC’s variant proportions data for this past week is out, and it shows that combined BA.4&5 made up slight...
Monday, July 11, 2022

Aggregate hours and payrolls of nonsupervisory workers and the onset of recessions

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   - by New Deal democrat An important reason I focus on whether or not the economy is heading into recession, is that during recessions inc...