Saturday, July 9, 2022

Weekly Indicators for July 4 - 8 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The 10-2 year Treasury yield inverted again, with very little ...
Friday, July 8, 2022

June jobs report: strong headline numbers, betraying numerous signs of rougher times ahead

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   - by New Deal democrat  Consumption leads employment. That’s true at bottoms, and it’s true at peaks as well. Since February, when consu...
Thursday, July 7, 2022

Jobless claims continue to drift higher, are no longer a positive; but no recession signaled

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 4,000 to 235,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week a...
Wednesday, July 6, 2022

May JOLTS report: a significant deceleration in the underlying jobs market has likely begun

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   - by New Deal democrat Late last year I introduced the idea that the jobs market was similar to a game of musical chairs, where employers...
Tuesday, July 5, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for July 5: no sign of a BA.4&5 wave in cases yet, as the next variant has appeared in India

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   - by New Deal democrat I haven’t done a Coronavirus dashboard in a couple of weeks, and there have been a few developments, so let’s take...
Monday, July 4, 2022

Independence Day, 2022

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   - by New Deal democrat The opening paragraph of the Declaration of Independence: “  When in the Course of human events, it becomes neces...
Sunday, July 3, 2022

There is no ‘compromise’ to end the issue of abortion - but there may be a ‘least worst’ modus vivendi

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   - by New Deal democrat I have written before that the typical divide between “economic” and “social” issues isn’t quite correct. Most “so...
Saturday, July 2, 2022

Weekly Indicators for June 27 - July 1 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There was yet more deterioration this week, focused on the long...
Friday, July 1, 2022

Manufacturing and construction start out the second half of 2022 with more bad news

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at the new month’s first data, on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, a...
Thursday, June 30, 2022

Real personal income and spending decline in May, while the saving rate increases (not good!)

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   - by New Deal democrat In May nominal personal income rose 0.5%, and spending rose 0.2%. But since  the personal consumption deflator, i....

Initial claims continue weakening trend, but are not signaling recession this year

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    - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 (from an upwardly revised 233,000), to 231,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year...