Saturday, July 2, 2022

Weekly Indicators for June 27 - July 1 at Seeking Alpha

›
    - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There was yet more deterioration this week, focused on the long...
Friday, July 1, 2022

Manufacturing and construction start out the second half of 2022 with more bad news

›
   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at the new month’s first data, on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, a...
Thursday, June 30, 2022

Real personal income and spending decline in May, while the saving rate increases (not good!)

›
   - by New Deal democrat In May nominal personal income rose 0.5%, and spending rose 0.2%. But since  the personal consumption deflator, i....

Initial claims continue weakening trend, but are not signaling recession this year

›
    - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 (from an upwardly revised 233,000), to 231,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year...
Wednesday, June 29, 2022

Two long leading indicators - real money supply and credit conditions - worsen

›
    - by New Deal democrat M1 and M2 money supply for May was reported yesterday by the Fed. The former was unchanged for the month, and the...
Tuesday, June 28, 2022

House prices continued to surge through April; expect no meaningful moderation in the CPI anytime soon

›
   - by New Deal democrat House prices increases continued to go through the roof as of April, as reported this morning in both the Case Shi...
Monday, June 27, 2022

A comment on housing, inflation, and Fed policy (and a side comment on spending)

›
   - by New Deal democrat No big economic news today, and as usual little State reporting on COVID over the weekend, so let me make a couple...
Saturday, June 25, 2022

Weekly Indicators for June 20 - 24 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The weakness in the long leading indicators is increasingly sp...
Friday, June 24, 2022

New home sales rebound, but downtrend in sales intact; prices continue to climb

›
   - by New Deal democrat In response to April’s dismal report, I wrote that “new home sales are heavily revised after the first report. It ...
Thursday, June 23, 2022

Resurrecting the metric: initial claims lead the unemployment rate; no recession signal so far

›
 - by New Deal democrat   Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 to 229,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 w...
Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Housing unaffordability closes in on bubble peaks; expect substantial price declines and increased foreclosures in the likely oncoming recession

›
   - by New Deal democrat I last looked at the issue of housing affordability at the beginning of April. As we all know, mortgage rates have...
Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Existing home sales: the freight train of price appreciation rolls on

›
   - by New Deal democrat Although existing home sales are less economically important than new home sales, what has been happening with the...
Monday, June 20, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for June 19: documenting the transition from pandemic to endemic

›
   - by New Deal democrat The COVID-19 pandemic is ever so gradually transforming into an endemic illness, the major risks of which still ma...
Saturday, June 18, 2022

Weekly Indicators for June 13 - 17 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . My paradigm is: first the long leading indicators turn. Then t...
Friday, June 17, 2022

Positive production print points to continued economic expansion in May

›
   - by New Deal democrat The usual suspects are out, claiming that a recession has either already started or is imminent. Well, the big rea...
Thursday, June 16, 2022

An across the board downturn for housing permits and starts in May

›
   - by New Deal democrat Housing permits and starts declined across the board in May. In the past year there has been a unique divergence b...