Saturday, June 18, 2022

Weekly Indicators for June 13 - 17 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . My paradigm is: first the long leading indicators turn. Then t...
Friday, June 17, 2022

Positive production print points to continued economic expansion in May

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   - by New Deal democrat The usual suspects are out, claiming that a recession has either already started or is imminent. Well, the big rea...
Thursday, June 16, 2022

An across the board downturn for housing permits and starts in May

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   - by New Deal democrat Housing permits and starts declined across the board in May. In the past year there has been a unique divergence b...

The increasing trend in new jobless claims continues

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -3,000 to 229,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 ...
Wednesday, June 15, 2022

Negative May and YoY real retail sales add to the foreboding signals of a recession next year

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   - by New Deal democrat  Nominal retail sales for the month of May declined -0.3%, and April was revised down by -0.2% to +0.7%. This red...
Tuesday, June 14, 2022

On the road, and missing all the fun on Wall Street . . .

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    - by New Deal democrat I’m still on the road, and there is no important economic statistic to report, but I will make a brief market com...
Monday, June 13, 2022

Weekly Indicators for June 6 - 10 and a comment on COVID

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   - by New Deal democrat I’m still traveling, so light posting for a couple days more. In fact, I neglected to post a link to my Weekly Ind...
Friday, June 10, 2022

Consumer prices rise 1% in May alone; owners equivalent rent at 30 year high; expect the Fed to keep stomping on the brakes

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   - by New Deal democrat Today is a travel day for me, so I’ll keep this relatively brief. People who were hoping inflation would abate did...
Thursday, June 9, 2022

Initial jobless claims now in a clear uptrend, and other economic notes for the week

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    - by New Deal democrat First, a note on other economic news from earlier this week.  The housing market is getting absolutely crushed by...
Tuesday, June 7, 2022

Coronavirus variant update: and on to the BA.4/5 wave

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   - by New Deal democrat Last week the CDC update showed variant “Ba.1.1.526” increasing quickly to 6.6% of all cases. Although they did no...
Monday, June 6, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for June 6: transitioning ever so gradually into a less fatal endemic condition

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   - by New Deal democrat The economic calendar is very light this week, with no significant news until Thursday, so let’s take this opportu...
Saturday, June 4, 2022

Weekly Indicators for May 30 - June 3 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The slow drip, drip, drip of decelerating or declining data is...
Friday, June 3, 2022

May jobs report: a little softening, but very positive; non-managerial workers are now working *more* total hours than before the pandemic

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    - by New Deal democrat Like the past few months,  I was most interested in three main issues: 1. Is the pace of job growth decelerating?...
Thursday, June 2, 2022

April JOLTS report: record low layoffs, still near record high quits and job openings

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   - by New Deal democrat   Late last year I introduced the idea that the jobs market was similar to a game of musical chairs, where emplo...

Initial claims stabilize, yet another 50+ year low in continuing claims

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   - by New Deal democrat  Initial jobless claims declined 11,000 to 200,000 last week, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000...
Wednesday, June 1, 2022

Manufacturing and construction continue to be positive for the months ahead

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at the new month’s first data, on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, ...