Friday, June 10, 2022

Consumer prices rise 1% in May alone; owners equivalent rent at 30 year high; expect the Fed to keep stomping on the brakes

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   - by New Deal democrat Today is a travel day for me, so I’ll keep this relatively brief. People who were hoping inflation would abate did...
Thursday, June 9, 2022

Initial jobless claims now in a clear uptrend, and other economic notes for the week

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    - by New Deal democrat First, a note on other economic news from earlier this week.  The housing market is getting absolutely crushed by...
Tuesday, June 7, 2022

Coronavirus variant update: and on to the BA.4/5 wave

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   - by New Deal democrat Last week the CDC update showed variant “Ba.1.1.526” increasing quickly to 6.6% of all cases. Although they did no...
Monday, June 6, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for June 6: transitioning ever so gradually into a less fatal endemic condition

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   - by New Deal democrat The economic calendar is very light this week, with no significant news until Thursday, so let’s take this opportu...
Saturday, June 4, 2022

Weekly Indicators for May 30 - June 3 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The slow drip, drip, drip of decelerating or declining data is...
Friday, June 3, 2022

May jobs report: a little softening, but very positive; non-managerial workers are now working *more* total hours than before the pandemic

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    - by New Deal democrat Like the past few months,  I was most interested in three main issues: 1. Is the pace of job growth decelerating?...
Thursday, June 2, 2022

April JOLTS report: record low layoffs, still near record high quits and job openings

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   - by New Deal democrat   Late last year I introduced the idea that the jobs market was similar to a game of musical chairs, where emplo...

Initial claims stabilize, yet another 50+ year low in continuing claims

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   - by New Deal democrat  Initial jobless claims declined 11,000 to 200,000 last week, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000...
Wednesday, June 1, 2022

Manufacturing and construction continue to be positive for the months ahead

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at the new month’s first data, on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, ...
Tuesday, May 31, 2022

House prices: signs and portents of an approaching peak?

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   - by New Deal democrat House prices increases were still going strong through March, as reported this morning in both the Case Shiller an...
Monday, May 30, 2022

Memorial Day 2022

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   - by New Deal democrat Memorial Day is that most somber of national observances, in which we remember  all those, of whatever race, creed...
Saturday, May 28, 2022

Weekly Indicators for May 23 - 27 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Few changes to the headlines, but lots of churning underneath. P...
Friday, May 27, 2022

Real income and - especially - spending increase in April, but households are getting much more overextended

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   - by New Deal democrat In April nominal personal income rose 0.4%, and spending rose 0.9%. March’s spending was revised up from 1.1% to 1...
Thursday, May 26, 2022

Initial and continuing jobless claims continue moderating trend

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    - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined 8,000 to 210,000 last week, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 s...
Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Real money supply declines sharply; another leading indicator for recession next year

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    - by New Deal democrat Real M1 declined -0.8% in April, and real M2 declined by -0.7%, following March declines of -1.0% for each: These...