Saturday, June 4, 2022

Weekly Indicators for May 30 - June 3 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The slow drip, drip, drip of decelerating or declining data is...
Friday, June 3, 2022

May jobs report: a little softening, but very positive; non-managerial workers are now working *more* total hours than before the pandemic

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    - by New Deal democrat Like the past few months,  I was most interested in three main issues: 1. Is the pace of job growth decelerating?...
Thursday, June 2, 2022

April JOLTS report: record low layoffs, still near record high quits and job openings

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   - by New Deal democrat   Late last year I introduced the idea that the jobs market was similar to a game of musical chairs, where emplo...

Initial claims stabilize, yet another 50+ year low in continuing claims

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   - by New Deal democrat  Initial jobless claims declined 11,000 to 200,000 last week, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000...
Wednesday, June 1, 2022

Manufacturing and construction continue to be positive for the months ahead

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at the new month’s first data, on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, ...
Tuesday, May 31, 2022

House prices: signs and portents of an approaching peak?

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   - by New Deal democrat House prices increases were still going strong through March, as reported this morning in both the Case Shiller an...
Monday, May 30, 2022

Memorial Day 2022

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   - by New Deal democrat Memorial Day is that most somber of national observances, in which we remember  all those, of whatever race, creed...
Saturday, May 28, 2022

Weekly Indicators for May 23 - 27 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Few changes to the headlines, but lots of churning underneath. P...
Friday, May 27, 2022

Real income and - especially - spending increase in April, but households are getting much more overextended

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   - by New Deal democrat In April nominal personal income rose 0.4%, and spending rose 0.9%. March’s spending was revised up from 1.1% to 1...
Thursday, May 26, 2022

Initial and continuing jobless claims continue moderating trend

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    - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined 8,000 to 210,000 last week, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 s...
Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Real money supply declines sharply; another leading indicator for recession next year

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    - by New Deal democrat Real M1 declined -0.8% in April, and real M2 declined by -0.7%, following March declines of -1.0% for each: These...
Tuesday, May 24, 2022

New home sales get walloped

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   - by New Deal democrat New single family home sales got walloped in April, declining -16.6% for the month compared with March, and down ...
Monday, May 23, 2022

Inflation reversals as unique markers of Boom and Bust cycles vs. Fed interventions

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   - by New Deal democrat As I’ve already mentioned a couple of times, I am seeing posts from the usual DOOOMERS warning that a recession is...
Saturday, May 21, 2022

Weekly Indicators for May 16 - 20 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The yield curve tightened some more this week (but did not inv...
Friday, May 20, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for May 20: signs of a peak in BA.2.12.1 in bellwether jurisdictions; is BA.4/BA.5 next?

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   - by New Deal democrat With no significant economic data today, let’s take a look at where the BA.2.12.1 COVID wave is. Nationwide cases ...
Thursday, May 19, 2022

Initial claims: a little cooling in the white hot employment market

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    - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 21,000 to 218,000, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. ...
Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Housing permits and starts decline slightly, but housing still an economic positive over the next 12 months

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   - by New Deal democrat Housing permits and starts declined, but not by much, in April. Importantly, while typically permits, especially ...